Iron ore rebounded from a two-year low on dip buying and improving steel margins, and copper added 1.86%, so the commodity leg has stopped deteriorating even as Rio Tinto raised Q3 output 2%.
Unemployment hit 4.7% after the 39.3K employment loss against a +19.6K forecast, reported as the RBA getting its wish. The reporting is explicit that this is a dovish rate shift, and it sent the Aussie to a one-month low against the kiwi. That removes the hike tail the market carried into the print.
AUD is last on the basket at -0.75% on the day, -0.47% over five days and -1.52% over twenty, and specs added 35,349 to a net short of 98,588 before the jobs data. I hold the AUD/JPY short and the EUR/AUD long. A sustained iron ore recovery above the dip-buying bounce flips this; AUD/USD regaining 0.7015 would say the dovish shift is fully priced.{}
| Impact | Headline | Pushes | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| large | RBA gets its wish as unemployment hits 4.7% after a 39.3K employment loss | AUD down → EUR/AUD up, AUD/JPY down | Against a +19.6K forecast, this removes the hike tail and sent the Aussie to a one-month low on the kiwi. It is the clearest rate-path move of the week and it is already in the book twice. |
| small | Iron ore rebounds from a two-year low on dip buying and improving steel margins; Rio Tinto Q3 output up 2% | AUD up, partially offsetting the rate story | Stabilisation, not rescue: supply is rising into soft China demand. It caps the downside speed of the Aussie rather than reversing it. |
| Date | View | Conviction | Next decision | Path | Result | Move vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.78% |
| Oct 15 | Down | 3 | hold | more dovish | flat | −0.09% |
| Oct 14 | Up | 2 | hold | more hawkish | wrong | −0.66% |
| Oct 13 | Up | 2 | hike | more hawkish | wrong | −0.61% |
| Oct 12 | Up | 2 | hold | more hawkish | wrong | −0.50% |
| Oct 9 | Up | 2 | hold | more hawkish | right | +0.22% |
| Oct 8 | Down | 2 | hold | more hawkish | wrong | −0.24% |
| Oct 7 | Flat | 1 | hold | more hawkish | due Mon, Oct 12 | pending |
| Oct 6 | Up | 1 | hold | more hawkish | flat | +0.05% |
| Oct 5 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Thu, Oct 8 | pending |
| Oct 2 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.66% |
| Oct 1 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.46% |
| Sep 30 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | flat | +0.13% |
| Sep 29 | Down | 1 | hike | as priced | right | +0.50% |
| Sep 28 | Down | 1 | hike | more dovish | right | +0.80% |
| Sep 25 | Down | 2 | hike | more dovish | right | +0.66% |
| Sep 24 | Down | 2 | hike | as priced | due Tue, Sep 29 | pending |
| Sep 23 | Up | 2 | hike | as priced | wrong | −0.67% |
| Sep 22 | Up | 2 | hike | as priced | wrong | −0.65% |
| Sep 21 | Up | 3 | hike | more hawkish | wrong | −0.73% |
| Sep 18 | Up | 3 | hike | more hawkish | wrong | −0.23% |
| Sep 17 | Flat | 1 | hike | more hawkish | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | Flat | 1 | hike | more hawkish | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 15 | Down | 2 | hike | more hawkish | wrong | −0.73% |
| Sep 14 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.26% |
| Sep 11 | Down | 2 | — | — | flat | +0.09% |
| Sep 10 | Up | 2 | — | — | wrong | −0.62% |
| Sep 9 | Up | 2 | — | — | wrong | −0.60% |
| Sep 8 | Up | 2 | — | — | wrong | −0.39% |