Oil: WTI is up 4.20% over five days and Brent sits at 105.26, though the IEA stock release knocked prices today and the Globe notes the loonie has not captured the oil gain.
Macklem said Canada has not raised rates yet and that energy prices pose challenges, which frames inflation risk rather than easing bias. That is enough for me to drop the dovish skew I carried into today. Labour data on 9 October was forecast at +6.1K after -41.7K with unemployment seen at 6.5%, and the actual is not in my feed.
CAD is barely changed at +0.05% on the day and +0.09% over five days despite standing near a two-week high against a weak dollar, which tells you the strength is entirely borrowed. USD/CAD at 1.4184 is exactly on its 20-day average, no edge. A Macklem hawkish follow-up or Brent above 108.81 would make it a long.{}
| Impact | Headline | Pushes | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| small | Macklem says Canada has not raised rates yet as energy prices pose challenges; IEA stock release pushes oil lower | CAD mildly up → USD/CAD down | Macklem framing inflation risk rather than easing bias lets me drop the dovish skew on CAD. WTI slipping 2.31% today trims the terms-of-trade tailwind but leaves it up 4.20% on the week. |
| Date | View | Conviction | Next decision | Path | Result | Move vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Wed, Oct 21 | pending |
| Oct 15 | Down | 1 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.68% |
| Oct 14 | Up | 1 | hold | more dovish | right | +0.62% |
| Oct 13 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.28% |
| Oct 12 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.33% |
| Oct 9 | Flat | 1 | hold | more dovish | due Wed, Oct 14 | pending |
| Oct 8 | Down | 1 | hold | more dovish | flat | +0.02% |
| Oct 7 | Flat | 1 | hold | more dovish | due Mon, Oct 12 | pending |
| Oct 6 | Down | 1 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.25% |
| Oct 5 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | wrong | −0.18% |
| Oct 2 | Flat | 1 | hold | more dovish | due Wed, Oct 7 | pending |
| Oct 1 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | right | +0.16% |
| Sep 30 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | right | +0.26% |
| Sep 29 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | flat | +0.09% |
| Sep 28 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Thu, Oct 1 | pending |
| Sep 25 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | right | +0.19% |
| Sep 24 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Tue, Sep 29 | pending |
| Sep 23 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | −0.02% |
| Sep 22 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.08% |
| Sep 21 | Down | 3 | hold | as priced | flat | −0.01% |
| Sep 18 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | right | +0.38% |
| Sep 17 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | right | +0.22% |
| Sep 16 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.11% |
| Sep 15 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Sep 14 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Thu, Sep 17 | pending |
| Sep 11 | Down | 1 | — | — | right | +0.18% |
| Sep 10 | Down | 1 | — | — | flat | −0.05% |
| Sep 9 | Flat | 0 | — | — | due Mon, Sep 14 | pending |
| Sep 8 | Flat | 0 | — | — | due Fri, Sep 11 | pending |