Dollar weakness plus the French fiscal and political backdrop: EUR/CHF at 0.9282 is in the 9th percentile of its twenty-day range.
Swiss producer inflation disappointed this week, which pares any case for the SNB moving away from around zero. Schlegel spoke on 15 October and nothing in the feed changed the December baseline. The franc's move is a flow story, not a rate story.
The franc leads the basket at +0.46% on the day, +0.39% over five days and +1.01% over twenty, and strengthened to a one-week high as the dollar retreated. It is the cleanest short-dollar expression while France is unresolved; a settlement of the French budget debate or a hawkish Fed headline flips it.{}
| Date | View | Conviction | Next decision | Path | Result | Move vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Up | 1 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.23% |
| Oct 15 | Up | 2 | hold | as priced | right | +0.22% |
| Oct 14 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Mon, Oct 19 | pending |
| Oct 13 | Flat | 1 | hold | more dovish | due Fri, Oct 16 | pending |
| Oct 12 | Flat | 1 | hold | more dovish | due Thu, Oct 15 | pending |
| Oct 9 | Up | 1 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.22% |
| Oct 8 | Up | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.01% |
| Oct 7 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.27% |
| Oct 6 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Fri, Oct 9 | pending |
| Oct 5 | Up | 1 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.38% |
| Oct 2 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Wed, Oct 7 | pending |
| Oct 1 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.57% |
| Sep 30 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | wrong | −1.02% |
| Sep 29 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.99% |
| Sep 28 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | −0.04% |
| Sep 25 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | right | +0.56% |
| Sep 24 | Up | 2 | hold | as priced | due Tue, Sep 29 | pending |
| Sep 23 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Mon, Sep 28 | pending |
| Sep 22 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Fri, Sep 25 | pending |
| Sep 21 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.63% |
| Sep 18 | Down | 3 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.64% |
| Sep 17 | Down | 3 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.77% |
| Sep 16 | Down | 3 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.00% |
| Sep 15 | Down | 3 | hold | as priced | right | +0.17% |
| Sep 14 | Down | 3 | hold | as priced | right | +0.23% |
| Sep 11 | Down | 4 | — | — | right | +0.26% |
| Sep 10 | Down | 3 | — | — | right | +0.30% |
| Sep 9 | Down | 3 | — | — | right | +0.60% |
| Sep 8 | Down | 3 | — | — | right | +0.20% |