French fiscal and political risk, with Draghi setting a high bar for ECB crisis support, plus reports Lagarde could leave early to lead the World Economic Forum.
Rehn said the growth outlook is better than at the start of the year and that he is not seeing second-round inflation effects, which is a hold with no urgency in either direction. French inflation rose sharply in September, which complicates but does not resolve the hike debate. The deposit rate has been pinned at 2.50% through the week.
The euro recovered from a 17-month low purely on dollar weakness and is still -0.09% on the basket over five days and -1.26% over twenty. Specs are net short 99,332 contracts and added 36,076 last week, so a squeeze is the upside risk; a French headline is the downside.{}
| Impact | Headline | Pushes | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| small | ECB's Rehn says the growth outlook is better than at the start of the year and he is not seeing second-round inflation effects | EUR flat → no push | A hold with no urgency in either direction, which keeps the euro's story stasis at a 2.50% deposit rate. French inflation rising sharply in September complicates it without resolving it. |
| Date | View | Conviction | Next decision | Path | Result | Move vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Wed, Oct 21 | pending |
| Oct 15 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Tue, Oct 20 | pending |
| Oct 14 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | right | +0.31% |
| Oct 13 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.16% |
| Oct 12 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | −0.06% |
| Oct 9 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | right | +0.25% |
| Oct 8 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | right | +0.22% |
| Oct 7 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Mon, Oct 12 | pending |
| Oct 6 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | −0.02% |
| Oct 5 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | −0.10% |
| Oct 2 | Down | 1 | hold | more hawkish | flat | +0.14% |
| Oct 1 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Tue, Oct 6 | pending |
| Sep 30 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Mon, Oct 5 | pending |
| Sep 29 | Flat | 1 | hike | as priced | due Fri, Oct 2 | pending |
| Sep 28 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Thu, Oct 1 | pending |
| Sep 25 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Wed, Sep 30 | pending |
| Sep 24 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Tue, Sep 29 | pending |
| Sep 23 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.15% |
| Sep 22 | Flat | 1 | hold | more hawkish | due Fri, Sep 25 | pending |
| Sep 21 | Flat | 1 | hold | more hawkish | due Thu, Sep 24 | pending |
| Sep 18 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | right | +0.22% |
| Sep 17 | Down | 3 | hold | as priced | wrong | −0.16% |
| Sep 16 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.06% |
| Sep 15 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | −0.13% |
| Sep 14 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.13% |
| Sep 11 | Flat | 1 | — | — | due Wed, Sep 16 | pending |
| Sep 10 | Flat | 0 | — | — | due Tue, Sep 15 | pending |
| Sep 9 | Down | 2 | — | — | flat | −0.07% |
| Sep 8 | Down | 2 | — | — | flat | −0.09% |