A fourth Bailey appearance tomorrow at 06:45Z keeps sterling the highest headline-risk currency into the weekend.
Bailey said second-round price pressures look "quite subdued" so far, repeated across three outlets from Bangkok. That is the governor removing the inflation-persistence argument for a near-term hike, so I move the November call from hike to hold. GDP was forecast at -0.1% m/m this week and the print is not in my feed.
Sterling is second on the basket at +0.40% today and +0.37% over five days, and EUR/GBP at 0.8440 sits in the 7th percentile of its twenty-day range. Specs are net short 97,611, 36.7% of open interest, the most crowded short in the set, which is fuel for the move. An explicitly dovish Bailey tomorrow flips it.{}
| Impact | Headline | Pushes | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| medium | Bailey sees quite subdued second-round price pressures so far | GBP down, though price went the other way | The governor removing the inflation-persistence argument moves my November call from hike to hold. Sterling still rose 0.40% on the basket, which is a dollar effect, not a vote against the rate-path shift. |
| Date | View | Conviction | Next decision | Path | Result | Move vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Up | 1 | hold | as priced | right | +0.32% |
| Oct 15 | Flat | 1 | hike | as priced | due Tue, Oct 20 | pending |
| Oct 14 | Up | 2 | hike | more hawkish | flat | +0.09% |
| Oct 13 | Up | 2 | hike | more hawkish | right | +0.31% |
| Oct 12 | Up | 2 | hike | more hawkish | flat | −0.09% |
| Oct 9 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Wed, Oct 14 | pending |
| Oct 8 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Tue, Oct 13 | pending |
| Oct 7 | Up | 1 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.02% |
| Oct 6 | Up | 1 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.13% |
| Oct 5 | Up | 1 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.00% |
| Oct 2 | Flat | 1 | hold | as priced | due Wed, Oct 7 | pending |
| Oct 1 | Up | 2 | hike | more hawkish | flat | −0.11% |
| Sep 30 | Up | 1 | hike | more hawkish | right | +0.17% |
| Sep 29 | Up | 2 | hike | more hawkish | flat | +0.05% |
| Sep 28 | Up | 1 | hike | more hawkish | right | +0.48% |
| Sep 25 | Up | 1 | hike | more hawkish | right | +0.52% |
| Sep 24 | Down | 2 | hold | more dovish | due Tue, Sep 29 | pending |
| Sep 23 | Down | 2 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.04% |
| Sep 22 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | right | +0.35% |
| Sep 21 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | right | +0.46% |
| Sep 18 | Down | 1 | hold | as priced | flat | +0.12% |
| Sep 17 | Flat | 1 | hold | more hawkish | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | Up | 2 | hold | more hawkish | wrong | −0.27% |
| Sep 15 | Up | 1 | hold | more hawkish | wrong | −0.33% |
| Sep 14 | Flat | 1 | hold | more hawkish | due Thu, Sep 17 | pending |
| Sep 11 | Down | 2 | — | — | wrong | −0.37% |
| Sep 10 | Down | 4 | — | — | wrong | −0.19% |
| Sep 9 | Down | 4 | — | — | wrong | −0.32% |
| Sep 8 | Down | 4 | — | — | flat | −0.12% |