ECCO

FX research desk
Thu, Sep 24, 2026
Updated 22:30 UTC

Desk view

neutral (mild). Up: USD, CHF. Down: AUD, GBP, JPY. 1 trade today: short AUD/JPY.

Trades today

AUD/JPY #16
Shortconviction 2
Entry111.250
Target109.650
Stop112.300
Australia's unemployment rate hit a five-year high of 4.6% against a 4.5% forecast and every outlet still calls next week's RBA hike 'bolted on' — the definition of fully priced, with the rising jobless rate arguing the tightening stops sooner than the chatter implies. The other leg is genuinely repricing: the 10-year …
conditions1.5× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/CHF Short 3d — Structurally the best AUD short — 0.57975 at 20% of range with the franc firming into the decision and France's budget crisis feeding a regional haven bid. The SNB at 07:30Z and the weak-franc inflation commentary make the franc leg a coin flip today; I wait for the press conference.

AUD/USD Short 3d — The purest version of the day's theme — Treasury yields through 5% and rising Fed hike odds against a spent RBA. But 0.70328 is 6% of the 20-day range after a 1.11% fall, and copper at 87% of range is a live bounce risk; I would sell a retest of 0.7080.

EUR/AUD Long 4d — Euro-area business activity reached a three-year high and the ECB is flagging inflation risks, against an RBA whose hike is fully priced into a five-year-high jobless rate. At 1.6181 it is back above the 1.6158 SMA20 but still below the 1.6269 SMA50; I want a close through 1.6250 or the RBA itself before paying up.

EUR/CHF Short 4d — French budget politics threaten another government as debt costs spiral, which is a direct periphery-spread bid for the franc against a held SNB rate of 0.00%. At 0.93820, 22% of range with the 0.93544 low in reach, I want the SNB out of the way first.

EUR/USD Short 4d — Trend and narrative agree: 1.13804 is 3% of the 20-day range, below all three moving averages, and the euro slid even on a strong PMI because US surveys topped it. Holding off because the 2Y fell to 4.71% while the 10Y rose — I would rather sell a bounce to 1.1440 than the low.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentNeutralmild

Equity and volatility markets are calm — VIX 15.18 at 27% of its 20-day range and down 11.74% over five days, S&P 500 at 7706, 73% of range and +1.59% on the week — but the S&P fell 0.76% yesterday and the bid is in yields, not in risk. Gold at 4317.9 is down 7.21% over 20 days and sits at 11% of range, so there is no haven accumulation; the risk barometer AUD/JPY at 111.25 is down 0.66% on the day and 2.72% over 20 days, at 30% of range. This is a rates regime, not a risk regime: the dollar is being bought on yields while the commodity currencies are sold on the same yields.

Helps USDHurts AUD
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts AUD, CHF
iron ore Uphelps AUD
hurts —
natural gas Uphelps USD
hurts JPY, CHF
oil Downhelps JPY
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

USDUp
3 of 3
Rate 4.00% (target raised from 3.75% on 16 September; FEDFUNDS fetch failed today) [Source: Book; Data errors] · next not in feed; late October FOMC
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Tariff and sanctions politics — a new US sanctions law threatening up to 100% tariff pressure on India's Russian oil purchases — is background noise that raises inflation risk rather than cutting against the dollar.
Read more
AUDDown
2 of 3
Rate 4.35% [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; commentary points to an RBA decision next week (early October)
Hike · likelyAs priced
Commodities are supportive but outgunned: copper +2.62% over five days at 87% of range, and iron ore margins squeezed by firm ore pricing.
Read more
CHFUp
2 of 3
Rate 0.00% [Source: Economic calendar] · next 2026-09-24 07:30Z SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, press conference 08:00Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
Haven and funding flows both apply: the franc firmed into the decision, and France's budget crisis with spiralling debt costs is a direct regional bid for CHF.
Read more
GBPDown
2 of 3
Rate 3.75% Bank Rate [Source: Economic calendar] · next not in feed; next MPC decision in November; Bailey speaks 25 September 09:15Z
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Positioning is heavy and static: large specs net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest, changed by just 121 on the week — crowded, but with no sign of a squeeze catalyst.
Read more
JPYDown
1 of 3
Rate below 1.25%, raised from below 1.00% on 18 September (Japan FRED series fetch failed) [Source: Economic calendar; Data errors] · next not in feed; next BOJ decision late October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Intervention is the live cap. Bloomberg and the Japanese press both flag re-emerging MOF risk as 160 nears, and specs are net long yen 120,359 contracts, 22.2% of open interest, after adding 109,563 in a week — a crowded long that has been wrong and can unwind violently either way.
Read more
CADFlat
1 of 3
Rate not available today (Canada FRED series fetch failed) [Source: Data errors] · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Oil is the whole trade and it is unhelpful: WTI -9.73% over five days, Brent -4.82% on the day, with Asia importing record volumes and Saudi pipeline supply returning.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.50% deposit rate [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; next ECB decision late October
Hold · leaningAs priced
French budget politics threaten another government as debt costs spiral, a periphery-spread risk that also drives haven flow into the franc. Falling European gas prices are a modest offset.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−152 pips
3 won, 7 lost, 3 open
Ideas
29%
6 right of 21, 15 pending
Currency calls
32%
18 right of 56, 16 pending
Open trades
3
GBP/AUD short, EUR/JPY long, AUD/JPY short

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades −152Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas −912Sep 10Sep 24

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 2 of 825% of 8Conviction 1Conviction 1: 1 of 1100% of 1

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades1323%3 / 7 / 3 other−152.13 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 2922%2 / 6 / 1 other−107.1
Conviction 11100%1 / 0+80.0
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions729%2 / 4 / 1 other−33.1
2 of 4 conditions10%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas2129%6 / 13 / 2 flat−911.715 pending, next Fri, Sep 25
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls5632%18 / 22 / 16 flat16 pending, next Fri, Sep 25
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 31850%9 / 9
Conviction 22322%5 / 18
Conviction 11030%3 / 7

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dpendingpending
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dpendingpending
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dpendingpending
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#16 entered at 111.25", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Thu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 briefTue, Sep 8 fullTue, Sep 8 briefMon, Sep 7 fullMon, Sep 7 briefSat, Sep 5 full

Runs

DateStarted
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC