risk-off (mild). Up: USD, JPY. Down: CHF, EUR, CAD. 2 trades today: long AUD/CHF, short EUR/USD.
AUD/USD Short 3d — The dollar is the strongest currency in the basket at +1.47% over five days and the Fed is the only bank with two more hikes being priced. Today's bounce to 0.71109 off 0.70872 is corrective; I would rather own the Australian dollar against the franc than fight the dollar with it.
CHF/JPY Short 4d — The weakest rate path against the only central bank forecast to move tomorrow: the BOJ policy-rate forecast is below 1.25% from below 1.00%, and the franc's 3M rate is negative and falling. At 188.738 it is already 8% of its 20-day range and 4.86% lower over twenty days, so I am waiting for the press conference at 05:30Z rather than paying for the gap.
EUR/CHF Long 5d — UBS sees a retest of 0.96 as the franc lags on low yield, and at 0.94614 the cross is 91% of its 20-day range. I am short the euro elsewhere, so I will not double the franc leg here; a Lagarde tone shift on Friday is what would make me take it.
USD/CAD Long 4d — The policy gap is 175bp and widening, September CPI was forecast at -0.1% m/m with median at 2.0%, and oil is now easing as Middle East supply fears fade. At 1.39870, 96% of the 20-day range, I want a pullback toward 1.3930 before paying up, and CAD specs are already net short 70,499.
VIX at 17.71 is up 7.59% in five days and 18.94% in twenty, at 76% of its range, while the S&P 500 at 7552 is down 1.11% in five days and sits at 17% of its 20-day range. AUD/JPY at 110.66 is at 19% of its 20-day range, down 1.83% over twenty days, confirming the credit-sensitive channel is heavy. But gold is down 4.59% in twenty days and at 13% of range, so this is a yield-driven de-rating rather than panic: higher US rates weigh on equity valuations and global growth.
Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.
Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.
| What | Scored | Hit rate | Won / lost | Net pips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All trades | 5 | 0% | 0 / 4 / 1 other | −279.4 | 4 open |
| Conviction 3 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| Conviction 2 | 3 | 0% | 0 / 3 | −114.0 | |
| Conviction 1 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| 4 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −32.0 | |
| 3 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −40.0 | |
| 0 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −42.0 | |
| Ideas, direction at the horizon | |||||
| All ideas | 0 | — | — | — | 16 pending, next Fri, Sep 18 |
| Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days | |||||
| All currency calls | 27 | 37% | 10 / 10 / 7 flat | 16 pending, next Fri, Sep 18 | |
| Conviction 4 | 5 | 20% | 1 / 4 | ||
| Conviction 3 | 8 | 88% | 7 / 1 | ||
| Conviction 2 | 12 | 8% | 1 / 11 | ||
| Conviction 1 | 2 | 50% | 1 / 1 | ||
| # | Date | Pair | Side | Conviction | Conditions | Entry | Target | Stop | Horizon | Status | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sep 17 | AUD/CHF | Long | 0.5865 | 0.593 | 0.5822 | 5d | pending | pending | ||
| 8 | Sep 17 | EUR/USD | Short | 1.1469 | 1.1375 | 1.1527 | 4d | pending | pending | ||
| 7 | Sep 16 | GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1038 | 1.111 | 1.0998 | 4d | stop | −40.0 | ||
| 6 | Sep 15 | AUD/CAD | Short | 0.9905 | 0.9825 | 0.9947 | 4d | stop | −42.0 | ||
| 5 | Sep 15 | EUR/GBP | Short | 0.8556 | 0.8505 | 0.8588 | 4d | stop | −32.0 | ||
| 4 | Sep 14 | EUR/JPY | Short | 178.21 | 175.5 | 179.8 | 5d | pending | pending | ||
| 3 | Sep 14 | USD/CHF | Long | 0.8177 | 0.8265 | 0.8122 | 4d | pending | pending | ||
| 2 | Sep 10 | GBP/JPY | Short | 208.25 | 205.6 | 209.7 | 4d | expired | −107.4 | ||
| 1 | Sep 8 | GBP/AUD | Short | 1.8757 | 1.864 | 1.8815 | 4d | stop | −58.0 |
Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#9 entered at 0.5865", and it appears here at the next refresh.
| Date | Pair | Side | Horizon | Reference | Result | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | AUD/USD | Short | 3d | 0.71109 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 17 | CHF/JPY | Short | 4d | 188.738 | due Wed, Sep 23 | pending |
| Sep 17 | EUR/CHF | Long | 5d | 0.94614 | due Thu, Sep 24 | pending |
| Sep 17 | USD/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.39870 | due Wed, Sep 23 | pending |
| Sep 16 | AUD/CAD | Short | 4d | 0.99290 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | CHF/JPY | Short | 3d | 189.617 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 16 | EUR/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.94501 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | GBP/USD | Long | 4d | 1.34911 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 15 | AUD/JPY | Short | 4d | 110.242 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 15 | CAD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.58822 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 15 | EUR/USD | Short | 3d | 1.15380 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Sep 15 | GBP/AUD | Long | 4d | 1.89304 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | AUD/CAD | Short | 5d | 0.99143 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | CAD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.58943 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Sep 14 | CHF/JPY | Short | 5d | 188.362 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.15727 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Date | Started |
|---|---|
| Wed, Sep 16 | 06:01 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 06:00 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 14 | 06:01 UTC |
| Thu, Sep 10 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Sep 9 | 06:00 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 8 | 09:13 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 16:52 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 14:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:10 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 16:29 UTC |