risk-off (mild). Up: JPY, USD. Down: CHF, AUD, EUR. 2 trades today: short EUR/JPY, long USD/CHF.
AUD/CAD Short 5d — The terms-of-trade divergence is as clean as it gets: oil up 11.74% in five days for Canada against iron ore at a three-week low on collapsing steel mill margins and copper at 13% of its range for Australia. Price does not agree yet at 0.99143, sitting exactly on the twenty-day average; I want a daily close below 0.9896 before acting.
CAD/CHF Long 4d — Oil at 102 WTI and 107 Brent after the Saudi pipeline shutdown and Hormuz disruption is the strongest commodity move in the book, and the Canadian dollar is already reported to be drawing support from it, against a franc funded at -0.045%. I am not paying 0.58943 at 97% of the twenty-day range with Canadian CPI at 12:30Z today; a soft headline and a pullback toward 0.5860 is where I would buy.
CHF/JPY Short 5d — The two highest-conviction views in the book point the same way, and the pair sits at 10% of its twenty-day range. It has already fallen from 199 to 188 in two weeks, so I would rather add on a bounce toward 190 than chase the low.
EUR/USD Short 4d — Below the 20-, 50- and 100-day averages at 1.15727 and only 5% off the twenty-day low, with a Fed forecast to hike Wednesday and an ECB already done until late October. I want a daily close through the 1.15660 range low rather than a fourth probe of it.
The S&P 500 is at 7657, down 1.17% in five days and sitting at 33% of its twenty-day range, while VIX at 15.84 is up 9.02% over five days and 11.16% over twenty despite a 11.21% drop in the last session. AUD/JPY, the cleanest risk barometer here, is at 110.098, just 11% off the bottom of its twenty-day range and down 2.18% in five days. The tell that this is a rates-and-oil shock rather than a fear event is gold: it is at 4367.5, down 1.41% in five days at 20% of range, falling because hot US inflation is raising hike odds rather than rising on haven demand.
Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.
Appears once trades resolve.
Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.
| What | Scored | Hit rate | Won / lost | Net pips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All trades | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −58.0 | 3 open |
| Conviction 3 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| Conviction 2 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| Conviction 1 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| Ideas, direction at the horizon | |||||
| All ideas | 0 | — | — | — | 4 pending, next Fri, Sep 18 |
| Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days | |||||
| All currency calls | 10 | 40% | 4 / 3 / 3 flat | 17 pending, next Tue, Sep 15 | |
| Conviction 4 | 2 | 0% | 0 / 2 | ||
| Conviction 3 | 4 | 100% | 4 / 0 | ||
| Conviction 2 | 4 | 0% | 0 / 4 | ||
| # | Date | Pair | Side | Conviction | Conditions | Entry | Target | Stop | Horizon | Status | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sep 14 | EUR/JPY | Short | 178.21 | 175.5 | 179.8 | 5d | pending | pending | ||
| 3 | Sep 14 | USD/CHF | Long | 0.8177 | 0.8265 | 0.8122 | 4d | pending | pending | ||
| 2 | Sep 10 | GBP/JPY | Short | 208.25 | 205.6 | 209.7 | 4d | pending | pending | ||
| 1 | Sep 8 | GBP/AUD | Short | 1.8757 | 1.864 | 1.8815 | 4d | stop | −58.0 |
Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#4 entered at 178.21", and it appears here at the next refresh.
| Date | Pair | Side | Horizon | Reference | Result | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | AUD/CAD | Short | 5d | 0.99143 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | CAD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.58943 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Sep 14 | CHF/JPY | Short | 5d | 188.362 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.15727 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Date | Started |
|---|---|
| Mon, Sep 14 | 06:01 UTC |
| Thu, Sep 10 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Sep 9 | 06:00 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 8 | 09:13 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 16:52 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 14:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:10 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 16:29 UTC |