ECCO

Ideas, not traded yet

EUR/CHF Short 3d — The euro fell on the day a euro-zone inflation surprise was reported, which tells me French sovereign risk outranks the ECB path right now. At 0.93297, 4% of the twenty-day range after a 1.43% day, I want the break to hold below 0.9324 before selling, and SNB discomfort with franc strength is the standing risk.

EUR/GBP Short 4d — Continuation of the move that already paid: 0.85161 is 7% of the twenty-day range with the euro the basket laggard at -0.92% over five days. I am not trading it because the euro's own data path is hawkish on the flash CPI and my book already carries a euro long.

GBP/AUD Long 4d — The cleanest expression of the AUD-down view: sterling is +0.33% against the basket over five days while the Australian dollar is last at -0.85%, and specs are net short 82,568 GBP contracts, 33.7% of open interest, which is squeeze fuel. At 1.90501, 84% of its twenty-day range, I want a daily close above the 1.91107 high before paying up.

USD/JPY Short 3d — Tokyo core CPI surged past forecast and a December BOJ hike is described as all but certain, while core PCE dipped to 3.4% and Fed hike odds are easing. At 157.77, 80% of its twenty-day range, the 10-year at 5.237% is still holding it up; a soft payroll at 12:30Z is the trigger I am waiting for.