The strongest-versus-weakest trade today is GBP/JPY or CHF/JPY, but the yen is +3.94% in five days and both of those charts sit at 5-7% of their 20-day range after a near-vertical drop — that is chasing. GBP/AUD pairs my highest-conviction weak leg (GBP, four checks) against a rate-supported strong leg without touching the yen, and crucially the AUD leg has no scheduled event inside the horizon while the GBP leg has Friday's GDP working for me. I also avoid the euro legs (EUR/AUD looks similar) because the ECB decision and three Lagarde appearances are unhedgeable event risk this week.
4 of 44 days
Minor conflict
CHF/JPY cross
ShortMedium
This is the cleanest fundamental opposition on the board — a hiking BoJ with an extreme spec short against the only negative-rate currency of the seven — and it was my cross yesterday. But after -3.90% in five days into 5% of the 20-day range I am not adding at these levels, and Schlegel speaks Friday inside the horizon on the leg I would be short. I keep it on the sheet without a trade rather than chase.
3 of 43 days
Minor conflict
Dollar pairs
AUD/USD
LongMedium
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
3 of 44 days
Major conflict
GBP/USD
ShortMedium
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
3 of 44 days
Major conflict
USD/JPY
ShortMedium
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
3 of 43 days
Major conflict
USD/CAD
ShortMedium
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs
2 of 44 days
Major conflict
EUR/USD
No biasLow
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
0 of 43 days
Major conflict
USD/CHF
No biasLow
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
0 of 43 days
Minor conflict
Squares are the four checks in order narrative, catalyst, structure, rates: filled is aligned, crossed is against, empty is neutral; the ringed square is the dominant driver. A pair reaches High only with all four aligned and no major conflict.
Direction reads
67%
2 right of 3, 19 pending
High-tier trades
1 open
none resolved yet
Best cross idea
Short GBP/AUD
High tier, 1 more idea
Open calls
1
GBP/AUD short
Track record
Cumulative pips by strategy
Hit rate by tier
Scorecard
Reads are scored on direction at the horizon; trades on target, stop or expiry; currency calls against the basket at three trading days.
Strategy
Scored
Hit rate
Right / wrong
Net pips
High-tier trades
0
—
—
—
1 open
High reads
0
—
—
—
2 pending, next Mon, Sep 14
Medium reads
3
67%
2 / 1
+254.2
16 pending, next Thu, Sep 10
Low reads
0
—
—
—
1 pending, next Fri, Sep 11
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls
0
—
—
10 pending, next Fri, Sep 11
Regimes
Pair
Regime
Dominant driver
Held
EUR/USD
Range regime, rate-differential stalemate
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
since Sat, Sep 5
GBP/USD
Rate-differential regime with an energy cost overlay
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/JPY
BoJ normalisation and short-squeeze regime
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
since Sat, Sep 5
AUD/USD
Commodity terms-of-trade and carry regime
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/CHF
Range regime anchored by SNB negative rates
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/CAD
Oil terms-of-trade regime
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs
since Sat, Sep 5
Book
High-tier calls
#
Date
Pair
Side
Entry
Target
Stop
Horizon
Status
Pips
1
Sep 8
GBP/AUD
Short
1.8757
1.864
1.8815
4d
pending
pending
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