It pairs the two cleanest 4/4 and 3/4 currencies on the board — a BoJ actively saying it must hike against a BoE frozen until 2027 — and unlike CHF/JPY it has a dated catalyst on the short leg, UK GDP tomorrow, rather than a speech nobody expects to move policy. I prefer it to GBP/AUD, my other GBP short candidate, because AUD's basket momentum has stalled at -0.06% over five days and GBP/AUD has gone sideways in a 1.8733-1.8794 band for six sessions, whereas GBP/JPY is still making lower highs and lower lows.
4 of 44 days
Minor conflict
AUD/CAD cross
LongMedium
It is the only pairing on the board that puts my up currency against my down currency with neither leg carrying a scheduled event inside the horizon, and it does not double up my yen exposure the way CHF/JPY or CAD/JPY would. It is the cleanest way to isolate carry — an RBA being priced to hike against a BoC at 2.27% and a Canadian dollar that will not be paid for $100 Brent because counter-tariffs are live.
3 of 44 days
Minor conflict
Dollar pairs
AUD/USD
LongMedium
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
3 of 44 days
Major conflict
GBP/USD
ShortMedium
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
3 of 44 days
Major conflict
USD/JPY
ShortMedium
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
3 of 43 days
Major conflict
USD/CAD
ShortMedium
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs
2 of 44 days
Major conflict
EUR/USD
No biasLow
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
0 of 43 days
Major conflict
USD/CHF
No biasLow
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
0 of 43 days
Minor conflict
Squares are the four checks in order narrative, catalyst, structure, rates: filled is aligned, crossed is against, empty is neutral; the ringed square is the dominant driver. A pair reaches High only with all four aligned and no major conflict.
Direction reads
67%
2 right of 3, 25 pending
High-tier trades
−58 pips
0 won, 1 lost, 1 open
Best cross idea
Short GBP/JPY
High tier, 1 more idea
Open calls
1
GBP/JPY short
Track record
Cumulative pips by strategy
High-tier tradesDirection reads
Hit rate by tier
Scorecard
Reads are scored on direction at the horizon; trades on target, stop or expiry; currency calls against the basket at three trading days.
Strategy
Scored
Hit rate
Right / wrong
Net pips
High-tier trades
1
0%
0 / 1
−58.0
1 open
High reads
0
—
—
—
3 pending, next Mon, Sep 14
Medium reads
3
67%
2 / 1
+254.2
21 pending, next Thu, Sep 10
Low reads
0
—
—
—
1 pending, next Fri, Sep 11
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls
0
—
—
16 pending, next Fri, Sep 11
Regimes
Pair
Regime
Dominant driver
Held
EUR/USD
Range regime, rate-differential stalemate
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
since Sat, Sep 5
GBP/USD
Rate-differential regime with an energy cost overlay
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/JPY
BoJ normalisation and short-squeeze regime
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
since Sat, Sep 5
AUD/USD
Commodity terms-of-trade and carry regime
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/CHF
Range regime anchored by SNB negative rates
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/CAD
Oil terms-of-trade regime
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs
since Sat, Sep 5
Book
High-tier calls
#
Date
Pair
Side
Entry
Target
Stop
Horizon
Status
Pips
2
Sep 10
GBP/JPY
Short
208.25
205.6
209.7
4d
pending
pending
1
Sep 8
GBP/AUD
Short
1.8757
1.864
1.8815
4d
stop
−58.0
Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the call number in the caption, e.g. "#2 entered at 208.25", and it appears here at the next refresh.