ECCO

FX research desk
Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Updated 06:06 UTC

Desk view

neutral (mild). Up: GBP, USD. Down: AUD, CAD, CHF. 2 trades today: long EUR/AUD, long EUR/CHF.

Trades today

EUR/AUD #25
Longconviction 1
Entry1.62920
Target1.64500
Stop1.61950
Australia delivered the hike to 4.60% on 29 September and the currency fell anyway: AUD is last in the basket at -0.71% over five days and AUD/USD sits at 2% of its twenty-day range, which is the market pricing the peak rather than a path extension, while the RBA warns global risks are rising and trade and PMI slumped.…
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending
EUR/CHF #24
Longconviction 2
Entry0.94680
Target0.95380
Stop0.94250
This is the cleanest one-sided path gap left: the SNB confirmed 0.00% on 24 September, today's Swiss CPI was forecast at 0.0% m/m from 0.4%, which removes the inflation argument for a hawkish surprise, and the bank bought 1.44 billion francs of foreign currency while the franc printed fresh 16-month lows. The euro leg …
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

EUR/CAD Long 4d — Canada is the only falling policy rate on the board at 2.25% from 2.27%, CPI fell to 2.32% from 2.64%, and WTI sits at 5% of its twenty-day range with Gulf exports recovering. Not trading it only because the book already carries two Canadian-dollar shorts; an oil bounce from 5% of range would hit all three at once.

GBP/AUD Long 4d — The two ends of the policy board: the UK immediate rate is rising at 3.7313% with deputy governors leaning to a hike, against an RBA that hiked and was sold. Specs are net short 82,568 sterling contracts, 33.7% of open interest, which is squeeze fuel. Waiting because I already run two sterling longs and the pair is at 87% of its range.

USD/JPY Short 3d — The dollar's bid is coming from the long end, the 10-year at 5.29% and 98% of range, while the 2-year fell to 4.89% from 4.92% and Goldman pushed its Fed hike call to December. Tonight's Tokyo core CPI, forecast 2.4% from 1.8%, can restore October BOJ pricing and payrolls on Friday is forecast at 89K from 162K. Not trading it: price is at 89% of its twenty-day range and I already hold two yen-long crosses; I want the CPI beat first.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentNeutralmild

VIX at 16.34 is up 7.64% over five days but sits at 49% of its twenty-day range, and the S&P 500 at 7652 is down only 0.71% over five days at 52% of range. The havens are not being bought: gold is at 18% of its range, down 4.46% over twenty days, the franc made fresh 16-month lows and the yen weakened into the 158s. AUD/JPY at 110.03 is down 1.16% over five days and 3.35% over twenty, but the Nikkei briefly surged 1,600 yen on AI buying, so the softness is commodity-and-rates driven rather than a flight to safety.

Helps USDHurts AUD, CAD
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Flathelps —
hurts AUD
natural gas Downhelps EUR, GBP
hurts —
oil Downhelps JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

AUDDown
2 of 3
Rate 4.35% Australia immediate rate to August on FRED; the calendar carried a Cash Rate decision on 29 September forecast at 4.60% from 4.35%, and the RBA denied staff a pay rise hours after an interest rate rise [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED); Economic calendar; News] · next Not in feed; November RBA
Hold · leaningMore dovish than priced
The commodity offset is half-working: copper is up 1.15% on the day at 64% of range, but Chinese steel mills are turning to India for iron ore.
Read more
CADDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.25% Canada immediate rate, falling from 2.27% [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next Not in feed; BoC decision in October
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Oil has turned against it: Brent fell 6.09% in a day and WTI sits at 5% of its twenty-day range, with Gulf exports recovering.
Read more
CHFDown
2 of 3
Rate 0.00% SNB policy rate, confirmed 24 September; 3M interbank -0.045% [Source: Economic calendar; Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next Not in feed; December quarterly assessment. Swiss CPI printed 1 October 06:30Z forecast 0.0% m/m from 0.4%, and Schlegel speaks 15:30Z [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · likelyAs priced
The haven bid is absent: gold at 18% of its twenty-day range means the mild defensive tape is flowing into the dollar, not the franc.
Read more
GBPUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.73% UK immediate rate, rising [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next Not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks 1 October 08:00Z [Source: Economic calendar]
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Positioning is the amplifier: specs are net short 82,568 contracts, 33.7% of open interest, after adding 23,853 shorts in a week — squeeze fuel into a hawkish MPC.
Read more
USDUp
2 of 3
Rate Not available: the FRED fed funds series failed today; US 2Y 4.89% and 10Y 5.26% as of 29 September [Source: Data errors; Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next Not in feed; late October FOMC. Nearest scheduled Fed events are Waller 1 October 14:00Z and Kashkari on 30 September [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · leaningAs priced
Fed independence politics: Trump says Powell should be forced to resign, though the Fed's watchdog found no criminal violations over the renovation overruns.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.50% ECB deposit rate [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next Not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde speaks 1 October 13:30Z [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · leaningAs priced
Lagarde will not rule out leaving a few months before her term ends in 2027, an institutional overhang, and she has warned France needs a credible path on debt.
Read more
JPYFlat
1 of 3
Rate 0.98% Japan immediate rate [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next Not in feed; late October BOJ. Tokyo core CPI 1 October 23:30Z, forecast 2.4% from 1.8% [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Rising US yields are the dominant driver: USD/JPY at 158.35 is at 89% of its twenty-day range with the 10-year at 5.293%. Specs remain net long 71,982 contracts but cut 48,377 in a week.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−52 pips
5 won, 8 lost, 7 open
Ideas
44%
17 right of 39, 15 pending
Currency calls
35%
25 right of 72, 27 pending
Open trades
7
CHF/JPY short, GBP/CHF long, GBP/CAD long, AUD/JPY short, USD/CAD long, EUR/CHF long, EUR/AUD long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades — #18 GBP/AUD long target — cumulative −286 pipsTrades — #16 AUD/JPY short target — cumulative −126 pipsTrades — #17 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −52 pipsTrades −52Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/GBP long flat — cumulative −872 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/CAD long right — cumulative −847 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/USD short right — cumulative −803 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/CHF short wrong — cumulative −826 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/AUD long right — cumulative −723 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −696 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −771 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −713 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/CHF long right — cumulative −675 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −576 pipsIdeas −576Sep 10Oct 1

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 3 of 1030% of 10Conviction 1Conviction 1: 2 of 2100% of 2

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades1828%5 / 8 / 5 other−52.07 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21323%3 / 7 / 3 other−110.0
Conviction 12100%2 / 0+183.0
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions1136%4 / 4 / 3 other+227.0
2 of 4 conditions20%0 / 1 / 1 other−119.6
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas3944%17 / 18 / 4 flat−576.015 pending, next Fri, Oct 2
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls7235%25 / 27 / 20 flat27 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 32050%10 / 10
Conviction 23324%8 / 25
Conviction 11443%6 / 8

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
25Oct 1EUR/AUDLong1.62921.6451.61954dpendingpending
24Oct 1EUR/CHFLong0.94680.95380.94254dpendingpending
23Sep 30USD/CADLong1.4191.4321.41084dpendingpending
22Sep 30AUD/JPYShort109.45107.6110.454dpendingpending
21Sep 29GBP/CADLong1.87781.89121.86954dpendingpending
20Sep 29GBP/CHFLong1.10251.11081.09724dpendingpending
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dpendingpending
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dtarget+103.0
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dexpired+74.3
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dtarget+160.0
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#25 entered at 1.6292", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Oct 1EUR/CADLong4d1.61276due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1GBP/AUDLong4d1.90667due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1USD/JPYShort3d158.346due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 30CAD/JPYShort4d110.596due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 30EUR/USDShort3d1.13482due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 30GBP/AUDLong4d1.89858due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 29CAD/JPYShort4d110.877due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29EUR/CHFLong4d0.94605due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29EUR/USDShort4d1.13598due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29USD/CADLong4d1.41888due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292right+38.4
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792right+58.0
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486right+99.1
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975wrong−22.9
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328right+43.7
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808right+103.4
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820wrong−75.8
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804right+27.1
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895right+24.9
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824flat−0.6
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Thu, Oct 1 fullThu, Oct 1 briefWed, Sep 30 fullWed, Sep 30 briefTue, Sep 29 fullTue, Sep 29 briefMon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Thu, Oct 106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 3006:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 2906:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC