ECCO

FX research desk
Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Updated 08:30 UTC

Desk view

neutral (mild). Up: JPY, USD, GBP. Down: CHF, AUD. 1 trade today: short CHF/JPY.

Trades today

CHF/JPY #19
Shortconviction 2
Entry189.850
Target186.900
Stop191.300
This is the widest path gap on the board: the SNB confirmed 0.00% on 24 September and Schlegel says Switzerland is in a comfortable spot on inflation, so a floor at zero cannot deliver a hawkish surprise, while the BOJ's own minutes signal readiness for further hikes and calls for faster hikes were voiced in July, with…
conditions2.0× risk5 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/CAD Short 4d — The commodity legs have split: Dalian iron ore hit a five-week low on higher global supply with China's steel slowdown in focus and mine output unadjusted, while WTI is 94.30 and +13.07% over 20 days after Trump rejected Iran's truce offer. Tomorrow's 25bp RBA hike is fully priced with the market talking about three rises, so the risk is a dovish statement. I am waiting for the RBA and Wednesday's CPI at 4.1% forecast to clear before adding a third AUD short to the book.

CAD/JPY Short 4d — Oil gives CAD a real tailwind, but the Bank of Canada has no reason to lean hawkish with tomorrow's GDP forecast at 0.1% against 0.3% prior while the BOJ is being repriced toward an October hike. Price is at 17% of its 20-day range and -3.31% over 20 days. I am not doubling the yen leg again today; a bounce toward 112.20 would be the entry.

EUR/CHF Long 5d — Euro area HICP rose 103.22 to 103.66 and Friday's flash is forecast at 3.7% against 3.3% with core 2.5%, while Vujcic says energy will stay higher for longer. That is a two-sided ECB against a static SNB. I want Wednesday's German prelim CPI at 0.5% forecast to confirm before paying 75% of the 20-day range.

GBP/CHF Long 5d — The BoE's November hike is conditional on energy and the condition is being met with US natural gas +10.19% on five days and Europe short of diesel, against an SNB that just confirmed zero. Specs are net short sterling 82,568 contracts, 33.7% of open interest, the biggest bets since the Brexit vote, which is squeeze fuel. Waiting on Bailey on 1 October and Swiss CPI the same morning.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentNeutralmild

The equity and volatility channel says risk-on: the S&P 500 is 7743, 86% of its 20-day range and +1.21% on five days, while VIX is 14.87, -5.11% on the day and only 21% of its 20-day range. The credit-sensitive channel says the opposite: AUD/JPY is 110.72, -1.00% on five days and 21% of its 20-day range, and Asian shares traded mixed with the Sensex down 730 points on surging crude and geopolitical jitters after Trump rejected Iran's truce offer. Gold at 0% of its 20-day range is not a risk signal here, it is a real-yield signal, so I read the regime as neutral with no haven premium being paid.

Helps AUD, CADHurts CHF, JPY
Commodities
copper Flathelps —
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Downhelps —
hurts AUD
natural gas Uphelps USD, GBP
hurts EUR, JPY, CHF
oil Uphelps CAD
hurts JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

CHFDown
2 of 3
Rate 0.00% (SNB policy rate, confirmed 24 September; 3M interbank -0.045%) · next not in feed; next quarterly assessment in December. Schlegel speaks 1 October 15:30Z and Swiss CPI prints 1 October 06:30Z, forecast 0.0% m/m
Hold · likelyAs priced
Two supports gone at once. Haven demand is absent with gold at 0% of its 20-day range, and Swiss voters rejected stricter neutrality rules, safeguarding sanctions on Russia and removing the political tail risk.
Read more
JPYUp
2 of 3
Rate 0.977% (Japan immediate rate, August 2026), falling from 0.978% · next not in feed; late October BOJ. Tokyo core CPI 1 October 23:30Z is the key input
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Official jawboning has become bilateral: the US is escalating pressure on Japan over yen depreciation and officials on both sides are sustaining yen buying. Specs cut net longs by 48,377 to 71,982 contracts, so the long is lighter and less vulnerable to a flush.
Read more
USDUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.63% (Fed funds effective, August 2026) · next not in feed; late October FOMC. Nearest scheduled Fed event is Waller speaking 1 October 14:00Z
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Trade politics have de-escalated: the US-China truce was extended and China will cut tariffs on US farm goods, with soybeans excluded. That removes an escalation premium rather than adding one.
Read more
AUDDown
1 of 3
Rate 4.35% (Australia immediate rate, August 2026), unchanged · next 2026-09-29 04:30Z, Cash Rate, forecast 4.60% from 4.35%
Hike · likelyMore dovish than priced
The commodity leg has turned negative: Dalian iron ore fell to a five-week low on higher global supply and China's steel slowdown is in focus, while copper is flat at -0.32% on five days.
Read more
GBPUp
1 of 3
Rate 3.7313% (UK immediate rate, August 2026), rising from 3.7308% · next not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks 1 October 08:00Z
Hike · toss upMore hawkish than priced
Positioning is the amplifier. Specs are net short 82,568 contracts, 33.7% of open interest, and added 23,853 on the week, which the Times calls the biggest bets against sterling since the Brexit vote.
Read more
CADFlat
1 of 3
Rate not available today: the FRED Canadian policy rate series failed (IRSTCI01CAM156N: FRED 502) [Source: Data errors] · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · likelyAs priced
Oil, and it has flipped helpful. WTI is 94.30, +2.05% on the day and +13.07% over 20 days after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal with Hormuz in focus.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate not available today: the FRED ECB deposit rate series failed (ECBDFR: FRED 502) [Source: Data errors] · next not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde speaks today 13:30Z, 29 September 11:00Z and 1 October 13:30Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
Terms of trade. Europe is short diesel after the Iran war and US gas is +10.19% on five days, an import-cost drag; the post-Lagarde succession contest adds background headline risk.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−389 pips
3 won, 8 lost, 4 open
Ideas
34%
10 right of 29, 15 pending
Currency calls
31%
21 right of 67, 15 pending
Open trades
4
AUD/JPY short, USD/CHF long, GBP/AUD long, CHF/JPY short

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades −389Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas −871Sep 10Sep 28

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 2 of 922% of 9Conviction 1Conviction 1: 1 of 1100% of 1

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades1520%3 / 8 / 4 other−389.34 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21118%2 / 7 / 2 other−344.3
Conviction 11100%1 / 0+80.0
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions825%2 / 4 / 2 other−110.3
2 of 4 conditions20%0 / 1 / 1 other−119.6
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas2934%10 / 16 / 3 flat−871.315 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls6731%21 / 27 / 19 flat15 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 31953%10 / 9
Conviction 23119%6 / 25
Conviction 11233%4 / 8

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dpendingpending
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dpendingpending
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dpendingpending
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dpendingpending
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#19 entered at 189.85", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Mon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 briefTue, Sep 8 fullTue, Sep 8 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC