ECCO

FX research desk
Mon, Oct 5, 2026
Updated 10:30 UTC

Desk view

neutral (mild). Up: USD, CHF, GBP, JPY. Down: CAD, EUR. 2 trades today: short CAD/CHF, short EUR/JPY.

Trades today

CAD/CHF #28
Shortconviction 1
Entry0.58120
Target0.57400
Stop0.58580
Canada has the only falling policy rate on the board at 2.25% from 2.27%, CPI fell to 2.32% from 2.64% at the last print, GDP was forecast at 0.0% from 0.3% and Friday's employment report is forecast at +9.0K with unemployment rising to 6.5%. The commodity leg turned against the loonie in the same week: WTI at 89.88 si…
conditions1.6× risk5 days · pending
EUR/JPY #27
Shortconviction 2
Entry176.650
Target174.300
Stop178.200
This pairs the board's weakest path story against its only hawkish one: the euro is last on the basket at -1.24% over five days with a bond rout reviving contagion fears, French debt jitters and up to 500 French schools closed, while the ECB is reported to be dialling back near-term hike urgency despite CPI flash forec…
conditions1.5× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

CAD/JPY Short 4d — Oil at 10% of its twenty-day range and a dovish Bank of Canada against a BOJ whose own ex-policymaker sees 1.5% by December is the same trade as my CAD/CHF short with a hawkish second leg. I am waiting for Ueda on 6 October before adding a third yen-long exposure.

EUR/GBP Short 4d — Sterling specs are net short 91,075 contracts, 36.2% of open interest, the most crowded position on the board, and the euro is the currency with the sovereign problem. Five straight down days to 8% of the range argues for waiting on a bounce toward 0.8520 rather than selling the low.

EUR/USD Short 4d — The trend is intact at 6% of the twenty-day range with the euro bond rout and ECB hike bets fading, but the pair gapped 62 pips, 97% of a daily ATR, on the open and I do not chase that into FOMC minutes. I would re-engage on a retest toward 1.1250.

GBP/AUD Long 5d — Iron ore flows face growing headwinds with softening steel demand and the UK is set to follow the EU with tariffs on Chinese EVs, while sterling sits second on the five-day basket at +0.47%. At 79% of its twenty-day range I want a pullback toward 1.8950 before paying up.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentNeutralmild

Equities and volatility say calm: the S&P 500 is at 7723, up 0.73% on the day and at 78% of its twenty-day range, while VIX is 15.31, down 6.59% and at 25% of its range. The credit-sensitive legs disagree: AUD/JPY at 109.54 sits at 21% of its twenty-day range and is down 2.68% in twenty days, gold is down 6.94% over twenty days at 7% of range, and the tape carries a euro bond rout reviving contagion fears alongside an AI rally defying a 24-year high in Treasury yields. This is not risk-off; it is a bond-market stress regime that bids the dollar and punishes the sovereign-impaired, with equity risk appetite intact.

Helps USD, JPY, CHFHurts EUR, CAD
Commodities
copper Flathelps —
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts AUD, CHF
iron ore Downhelps —
hurts AUD
natural gas Flathelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, CHF, JPY
oil Downhelps JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

CADDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.25% (Canada immediate rate, August), falling from 2.27% · next Not in feed; BoC decision expected in October
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Oil has turned against it, with WTI at 89.88, 10% of its twenty-day range, after the Aramco OSP cut and G7 stock release, and the tariff war with the US is escalating, with Canada imposing new tariffs on US farm goods and Carney wargaming scenarios.
Read more
EURDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.50% (ECB deposit rate, 2 October) · next Not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde spoke 28 and 29 September and 1 October [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · likelyAs priced
Sovereign and institutional risk dominates: a euro bond rout reviving contagion fears, French debt jitters, up to 500 French schools closed by student protests, and Merz meeting frontrunners to replace Lagarde. Specs are net short 63,256 contracts and added 10,922 shorts on the week, so positioning is already one-way.
Read more
USDUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.75% (Fed funds effective, September) · next Not in feed; late October FOMC. FOMC minutes 2026-10-07 18:00Z are the nearest scheduled Fed event [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · likelyAs priced
Long-end supply and politics: allies are turning net sellers of Treasuries with the 10-year at 5.277%, and Trump adviser Hassett is publicly urging Powell to leave the Fed board, a Fed-independence headline that has not yet been priced.
Read more
CHFUp
1 of 3
Rate 0.00% SNB policy rate, confirmed 24 September; 3M interbank -0.045% (August) [Source: Book; Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next Not in feed; December quarterly assessment. Schlegel spoke 1 October 15:30Z [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · likelyAs priced
The French sovereign story is the whole trade: French debt jitters fuelled a rush to the franc, French-German yield spreads widened sharply, and EUR/CHF at 0.92890 is at 12% of its twenty-day range. The counterweight arrived this morning, with the franc weakening as safe-haven demand lifts the dollar instead.
Read more
GBPUp
1 of 3
Rate 3.73% (UK immediate rate, August) · next Not in feed; November MPC. Bailey spoke 25 September and 1 October, content not captured in the feed [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · leaningAs priced
Positioning is the live story: specs are net short 91,075 contracts, 36.2% of open interest, after adding 8,507 shorts in the week to 29 September, the most crowded short on the board. Britain is also set to follow the EU with tariffs on Chinese electric cars, a trade headline with no near-term currency transmission.
Read more
JPYUp
1 of 3
Rate 0.98% (Japan immediate rate, August) · next Not in feed; late October BOJ, with December the meeting the market is pricing [Source: Previous board; News]
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
The yield differential fights the path: the US 10-year at 5.277% keeps USD/JPY at 157.83, 81% of its twenty-day range, and the pair closed the weekend gap at zero. Specs cut 16,542 from a net long of 55,440, so the long yen trade is being trimmed.
Read more
AUDFlat
1 of 3
Rate 4.35% (Australia immediate rate, August); the RBA cash rate decision of 29 September was forecast at 4.60% from 4.35% [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED); Economic calendar] · next Not in feed; November RBA
Hold · leaningAs priced
China-linked commodities: iron ore flows face growing headwinds with softening steel demand after dipping to a one-year low, and the UK is set to follow the EU with tariffs on Chinese EVs. Copper's 1.19% day leaves it flat over five and twenty days. Specs are net short 63,239 and added 16,425 shorts.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−269 pips
5 won, 12 lost, 4 open
Ideas
49%
24 right of 49, 13 pending
Currency calls
37%
33 right of 89, 19 pending
Open trades
4
AUD/JPY short, USD/CAD long, EUR/JPY short, CAD/CHF short

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades — #18 GBP/AUD long target — cumulative −286 pipsTrades — #16 AUD/JPY short target — cumulative −126 pipsTrades — #17 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −52 pipsTrades — #24 EUR/CHF long stop — cumulative −95 pipsTrades — #20 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −148 pipsTrades — #25 EUR/AUD long stop — cumulative −245 pipsTrades — #26 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −301 pipsTrades — #19 CHF/JPY short expired — cumulative −345 pipsTrades — #21 GBP/CAD long expired — cumulative −269 pipsTrades −269Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/GBP long flat — cumulative −872 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/CAD long right — cumulative −847 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/USD short right — cumulative −803 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/CHF short wrong — cumulative −826 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/AUD long right — cumulative −723 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −696 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −771 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −713 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/CHF long right — cumulative −675 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −576 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/GBP short right — cumulative −485 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 AUD/CAD short right — cumulative −411 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −370 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −218 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 GBP/CHF long wrong — cumulative −244 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −410 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −333 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −508 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −343 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −306 pipsIdeas −306Sep 10Oct 5

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 3 of 1323% of 13Conviction 1Conviction 1: 2 of 367% of 3

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades2421%5 / 12 / 7 other−269.34 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21718%3 / 10 / 4 other−306.1
Conviction 1450%2 / 1 / 1 other+161.8
4 of 4 conditions20%0 / 2−85.0
3 of 4 conditions1527%4 / 6 / 5 other+118.7
2 of 4 conditions30%0 / 2 / 1 other−175.6
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas4949%24 / 21 / 4 flat−306.213 pending, next Tue, Oct 6
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls8937%33 / 30 / 26 flat19 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 32152%11 / 10
Conviction 24524%11 / 34
Conviction 11856%10 / 8

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
28Oct 5CAD/CHFShort0.58120.5740.58585dpendingpending
27Oct 5EUR/JPYShort176.65174.3178.24dpendingpending
26Oct 2AUD/CADShort0.98560.9770.99124dstop−56.0
25Oct 1EUR/AUDLong1.62921.6451.61954dstop−97.0
24Oct 1EUR/CHFLong0.94680.95380.94254dstop−43.0
23Sep 30USD/CADLong1.4191.4321.41084dpendingpending
22Sep 30AUD/JPYShort109.45107.6110.454dpendingpending
21Sep 29GBP/CADLong1.87781.89121.86954dexpired+75.8
20Sep 29GBP/CHFLong1.10251.11081.09724dstop−53.0
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dexpired−44.1
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dtarget+103.0
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dexpired+74.3
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dtarget+160.0
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#28 entered at 0.5812", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Oct 5CAD/JPYShort4d110.525due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/GBPShort4d0.84724due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/USDShort4d1.11957due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5GBP/AUDLong5d1.90313due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 2EUR/CHFShort3d0.93297due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 2EUR/GBPShort4d0.85161due Thu, Oct 8pending
Oct 2GBP/AUDLong4d1.90501due Thu, Oct 8pending
Oct 2USD/JPYShort3d157.766due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1EUR/CADLong4d1.61276due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1GBP/AUDLong4d1.90667due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1USD/JPYShort3d158.346due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 30CAD/JPYShort4d110.596due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 30EUR/USDShort3d1.13482right+152.5
Sep 30GBP/AUDLong4d1.89858due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 29CAD/JPYShort4d110.877right+36.9
Sep 29EUR/CHFLong4d0.94605wrong−174.9
Sep 29EUR/USDShort4d1.13598right+165.3
Sep 29USD/CADLong4d1.41888right+77.0
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381right+74.2
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385right+40.8
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523wrong−166.7
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942wrong−25.8
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292right+38.4
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061right+90.5
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792right+58.0
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486right+99.1
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975wrong−22.9
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328right+43.7
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808right+103.4
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820wrong−75.8
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804right+27.1
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895right+24.9
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824flat−0.6
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7

Reports

Daily reports

Mon, Oct 5 fullMon, Oct 5 briefFri, Oct 2 fullFri, Oct 2 briefThu, Oct 1 fullThu, Oct 1 briefWed, Sep 30 fullWed, Sep 30 briefTue, Sep 29 fullTue, Sep 29 briefMon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Mon, Oct 506:00 UTC
Fri, Oct 206:00 UTC
Thu, Oct 106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 3006:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 2906:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC