ECCO

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/JPY Short 4d — The risk barometer is at 110.242, 11% of its twenty-day range with VIX up 11.76% in five days and the S&P at 19% of range, and the BOJ is forecast to hike Friday with the rate path below 1.25%. Not a trade because yen specs flipped to net long 10,796 on a +103,023 weekly swing, a crowded position into an event.

CAD/CHF Long 4d — Oil at 103.10 WTI, up 22.01% in twenty days, against a franc with a -0.045% policy rate that is failing its haven test at -0.47% over five days through Gulf escalation. Not trading it because I already hold a short-franc position in USD/CHF and the pair sits at 85% of its twenty-day range; I want a pullback toward 0.5850 after the FOMC.

EUR/USD Short 3d — At 1.15380, 8% of its twenty-day range, with the euro the marginal loser from Brent at 107.23 and ECB leadership noise from the reported Lagarde exit story. I will not trade it because the 4.00% hike is already priced and the repricing has happened in the bond market, so the dots create two-way risk tomorrow.

GBP/AUD Long 4d — Same sterling catalyst stack as the EUR/GBP trade, expressed against the weakest commodity leg: UK CPI Wednesday and the MPC vote Thursday versus iron ore at a three-week low. I am waiting because the cross has already run 0.91% in five days to mid-range and Bullock speaks Thursday.