ECCO

FX research desk
Thu, Oct 8, 2026
Updated 18:30 UTC

Desk view

neutral (mild). Up: CHF, JPY, USD. Down: AUD, EUR, CAD. 2 trades today: short USD/JPY, short EUR/CHF.

Trades today

USD/JPY #33
Shortconviction 1
Entry158.170
Target156.300
Stop159.050
The yen's policy path moved today and the dollar's did not: the BoJ's regional report sees broadening inflationary pressure with two of nine regions upgraded, Tokyo core CPI was forecast at 2.4% from 1.8%, and PM Takaichi saying reflationary policy is not required now removes the political brake that kept the BoJ froze…
conditions2.1× risk4 days · pending
EUR/CHF #32
Shortconviction 2
Entry0.93280
Target0.92300
Stop0.93930
This pairs the weakest currency on the board against the one with the cleanest flow bid: the euro is last on the five-day basket at -1.02% while the franc leads at +0.66%, and ECB's Dolenc has just said current rates leave room to respond to new shocks, which is an invitation to cut rather than a hold with conviction. …
conditions1.5× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/CHF Short 4d — Dalian iron ore at a fifteen-month low with a Chinese buyer boycott biting Fortescue is the AUD leg; the French bond bid is the CHF leg. Holding off because copper is up 3.42% in five days at the 77th percentile and that offset is still working.

AUD/JPY Short 4d — The risk barometer has fallen 0.54% to the 30th percentile of its range while the Nikkei broke 70,000 and Asian shares declined under rising yields and surging oil. Want VIX off the 20th percentile before trading a risk-off expression.

EUR/GBP Short 3d — Sterling specs are net short 91,075 contracts, 36.2% of open interest, after adding 8,507, which makes any hawkish line from Bailey at 12:15Z a squeeze against a euro already breaking down. Not trading it before the speech because the content is the whole trade.

EUR/JPY Short 4d — Weakest currency against the only path that turned more hawkish today, and the cross is already at the 16th percentile of its twenty-day range. Waiting for a daily close below the 176.211 twenty-day low before adding a third euro short to the book.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentNeutralmild

VIX at 15.08 is the 20th percentile of its range and down 7.71% in five days, and the S&P 500 at 7802 is the 87th percentile, both risk-on readings. Against that, AUD/JPY has fallen 0.54% to 109.885 at the 30th percentile of its twenty-day range, the Nikkei dropped 662 yen through 70,000, Asian shares declined under rising bond yields and surging oil, and US stocks slid on renewed Iran war fears. Gold at 4147.7 is down 5.89% over twenty days at the 16th percentile, so there is no haven bid in metals; this is a stable index tape with a deteriorating risk-proxy cross, which is neutral, not risk-on. Changed from risk_on (mild) on the AUD/JPY and Asian equity evidence.

Helps USD, CHFHurts AUD
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD, CAD
hurts JPY
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Downhelps JPY
hurts AUD
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF
oil Uphelps CAD
hurts JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

AUDDown
2 of 3
Rate 4.35% · next Not in feed; November RBA
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
The China inputs have split badly: Dalian iron ore hit a fifteen-month low on thin steel margins with a Chinese buyer boycott hitting Fortescue, while copper rallied 3.42% in five days.
Read more
CHFUp
2 of 3
Rate -0.05% · next Not in feed; December quarterly assessment. Schlegel last spoke 2026-10-01 15:30Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
The French sovereign story is the driver and it has re-intensified rather than faded: market pressure on France built ahead of budget talks, the ECB will not intervene, and EUR/CHF has fallen 1.45% in five days to 0.93280.
Read more
EURDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.50% · next Not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde last spoke 2026-10-01 13:30Z
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
France is the whole trade: a 283.7 billion euro debt wall, student blockades, intensifying market pressure before budget talks, and the succession question at the ECB itself.
Read more
JPYUp
2 of 3
Rate Not available: the FRED Japan immediate-rate series failed today · next Not in feed; late October BOJ. Ueda last spoke 2026-10-06 06:35Z
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Intervention risk is now documented, not speculative: the FOMC minutes reveal July's US-Japan coordinated yen intervention was funded entirely by the Treasury. USD/JPY at 158.174 is the 86th percentile of its twenty-day range, inside the zone where officials have acted.
Read more
USDUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.75% · next Not in feed; late October FOMC. Nearest scheduled Fed events are Waller 2026-10-08 08:30Z and Unemployment Claims 2026-10-08 12:30Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
Long-end supply and tariff inflation anxiety keep real yields high and the dollar bid; DXY at 102.29 is the 93rd percentile of its twenty-day range near an 18-month high.
Read more
CADDown
1 of 3
Rate 2.25% · next Not in feed; BoC decision expected in October. Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 2026-10-09 12:30Z are the decisive data
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Oil is the offset and it is ambiguous: crude is up 2.30% on Gulf shipping attacks but the IEA is accelerating strategic stock releases, and WTI remains at the 17th percentile of its twenty-day range.
Read more
GBPFlat
1 of 3
Rate 3.73% · next Not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks today 2026-10-08 12:15Z, high impact
Hold · leaningAs priced
Positioning dominates. Specs are net short 91,075 contracts, 36.2% of open interest, after adding 8,507 shorts, which is an extreme that makes sterling squeeze-prone on any hawkish Bailey line.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−520 pips
5 won, 15 lost, 4 open
Ideas
45%
26 right of 58, 15 pending
Currency calls
33%
34 right of 103, 21 pending
Open trades
4
EUR/AUD short, USD/CAD long, EUR/CHF short, USD/JPY short

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades — #18 GBP/AUD long target — cumulative −286 pipsTrades — #16 AUD/JPY short target — cumulative −126 pipsTrades — #17 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −52 pipsTrades — #24 EUR/CHF long stop — cumulative −95 pipsTrades — #20 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −148 pipsTrades — #25 EUR/AUD long stop — cumulative −245 pipsTrades — #26 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −301 pipsTrades — #19 CHF/JPY short expired — cumulative −345 pipsTrades — #21 GBP/CAD long expired — cumulative −269 pipsTrades — #22 AUD/JPY short expired — cumulative −340 pipsTrades — #23 USD/CAD long expired — cumulative −260 pipsTrades — #27 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #28 CAD/CHF short stop — cumulative −461 pipsTrades — #31 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −520 pipsTrades −520Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/GBP long flat — cumulative −872 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/CAD long right — cumulative −847 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/USD short right — cumulative −803 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/CHF short wrong — cumulative −826 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/AUD long right — cumulative −723 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −696 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −771 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −713 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/CHF long right — cumulative −675 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −576 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/GBP short right — cumulative −485 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 AUD/CAD short right — cumulative −411 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −370 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −218 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 GBP/CHF long wrong — cumulative −244 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −410 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −333 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −508 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −343 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −306 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −334 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 CAD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −352 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-01 USD/JPY short right — cumulative −332 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-02 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −361 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-02 USD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −419 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-01 EUR/CAD long wrong — cumulative −582 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-01 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −640 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-02 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −705 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-02 EUR/GBP short right — cumulative −670 pipsIdeas −670Sep 10Oct 8

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 3 of 1520% of 15Conviction 1Conviction 1: 2 of 450% of 4

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades2917%5 / 15 / 9 other−519.54 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 22015%3 / 12 / 5 other−591.1
Conviction 1633%2 / 2 / 2 other+196.6
4 of 4 conditions20%0 / 2−85.0
3 of 4 conditions1921%4 / 9 / 6 other−212.3
2 of 4 conditions40%0 / 2 / 2 other−94.8
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas5845%26 / 28 / 4 flat−669.715 pending, next Fri, Oct 9
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls10333%34 / 37 / 32 flat21 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 32152%11 / 10
Conviction 25522%12 / 43
Conviction 12245%10 / 12

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
33Oct 8USD/JPYShort158.17156.3159.054dpendingpending
32Oct 8EUR/CHFShort0.93280.9230.93934dpendingpending
31Oct 7GBP/CHFLong1.10411.1121.09825dstop−59.0
30Oct 6USD/CADLong1.42671.4391.4194dpendingpending
29Oct 6EUR/AUDShort1.60871.5931.6194dpendingpending
28Oct 5CAD/CHFShort0.58120.5740.58585dstop−46.0
27Oct 5EUR/JPYShort176.65174.3178.24dstop−155.0
26Oct 2AUD/CADShort0.98560.9770.99124dstop−56.0
25Oct 1EUR/AUDLong1.62921.6451.61954dstop−97.0
24Oct 1EUR/CHFLong0.94680.95380.94254dstop−43.0
23Sep 30USD/CADLong1.4191.4321.41084dexpired+80.8
22Sep 30AUD/JPYShort109.45107.6110.454dexpired−71.0
21Sep 29GBP/CADLong1.87781.89121.86954dexpired+75.8
20Sep 29GBP/CHFLong1.10251.11081.09724dstop−53.0
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dexpired−44.1
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dtarget+103.0
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dexpired+74.3
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dtarget+160.0
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#33 entered at 158.17", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Oct 8AUD/CHFShort4d0.57889due Wed, Oct 14pending
Oct 8AUD/JPYShort4d109.885due Wed, Oct 14pending
Oct 8EUR/GBPShort3d0.84813due Tue, Oct 13pending
Oct 8EUR/JPYShort4d177.062due Wed, Oct 14pending
Oct 7AUD/CHFLong3d0.58084due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 7EUR/GBPShort4d0.84753due Tue, Oct 13pending
Oct 7EUR/USDShort3d1.12334due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6AUD/CADLong4d0.99446due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6AUD/CHFLong4d0.57955due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6EUR/GBPShort4d0.84845due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6USD/JPYLong3d158.071due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5CAD/JPYShort4d110.525due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/GBPShort4d0.84724due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/USDShort4d1.11957due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5GBP/AUDLong5d1.90313due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 2EUR/CHFShort3d0.93297wrong−29.0
Oct 2EUR/GBPShort4d0.85161right+35.7
Oct 2GBP/AUDLong4d1.90501wrong−65.8
Oct 2USD/JPYShort3d157.766wrong−58.1
Oct 1EUR/CADLong4d1.61276wrong−162.7
Oct 1GBP/AUDLong4d1.90667wrong−57.9
Oct 1USD/JPYShort3d158.346right+20.4
Sep 30CAD/JPYShort4d110.596wrong−18.3
Sep 30EUR/USDShort3d1.13482right+152.5
Sep 30GBP/AUDLong4d1.89858wrong−27.8
Sep 29CAD/JPYShort4d110.877right+36.9
Sep 29EUR/CHFLong4d0.94605wrong−174.9
Sep 29EUR/USDShort4d1.13598right+165.3
Sep 29USD/CADLong4d1.41888right+77.0
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381right+74.2
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385right+40.8
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523wrong−166.7
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942wrong−25.8
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292right+38.4
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061right+90.5
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792right+58.0
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486right+99.1
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975wrong−22.9
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328right+43.7
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808right+103.4
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820wrong−75.8
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804right+27.1
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895right+24.9
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824flat−0.6
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1

Reports

Daily reports

Thu, Oct 8 fullThu, Oct 8 briefWed, Oct 7 fullWed, Oct 7 briefTue, Oct 6 fullTue, Oct 6 briefMon, Oct 5 fullMon, Oct 5 briefFri, Oct 2 fullFri, Oct 2 briefThu, Oct 1 fullThu, Oct 1 briefWed, Sep 30 fullWed, Sep 30 briefTue, Sep 29 fullTue, Sep 29 briefMon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Mon, Oct 506:00 UTC
Fri, Oct 206:00 UTC
Thu, Oct 106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 3006:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 2906:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC