ECCO

FX research desk
Fri, Sep 25, 2026
Updated 18:30 UTC

Desk view

neutral (mild). Up: USD, GBP. Down: AUD, CHF, CAD. 2 trades today: long GBP/AUD, long USD/CHF.

Trades today

GBP/AUD #18
Longconviction 1
Entry1.88320
Target1.89350
Stop1.87700
This reverses my short and I am reversing it because the evidence flipped on both legs: the FT reports the Bank of England will raise rates in November if energy prices remain high, and the condition is being met with US natural gas +12.95% on five days at 95% of range and Brent +17.11% over twenty, while Australia's u…
conditions1.7× risk5 days · pending
USD/CHF #17
Longconviction 2
Entry0.82890
Target0.83900
Stop0.82280
The widest path gap on the board runs from a Fed being repriced hawkish to a central bank that just confirmed zero: the US 2Y moved 4.71 to 4.85 and the 10Y 4.96 to 5.11 in one session with the 10Y at 97% of its 20-day range, while the SNB held at 0.00% on 24 September against a market betting on hikes to 0.75% by next…
conditions1.7× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

EUR/CHF Long 4d — The same SNB-at-zero trade without dollar extension risk; BBH read the hold as keeping upside in the crosses. Waiting for a daily hold above 0.9430 to confirm the 0.9374 low was the turn.

EUR/GBP Short 5d — At 91% of its 20-day range into a hawkish BoE repricing and the heaviest spec short in the majors. Waiting for a break of 0.8580 to confirm; the 23-pip ATR makes the risk-reward hard to frame before then.

EUR/USD Short 4d — Path divergence is clean — a Fed leaning to hike against an ECB holding with French services at 48.3 and German at 49.9 — but at 6% of its 20-day range and 52 pips of ATR I want a bounce toward 1.1430 before selling.

USD/CAD Long 4d — A frozen BoC against a repricing Fed widens weekly, and WTI is -7.71% on five days. At 100% of its 20-day range I want a pullback toward 1.4090 rather than this entry.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentNeutralmild

VIX at 15.67 is up 3.23% on the day but down 11.52% over five and sits at only 36% of its 20-day range, while the S&P 500 at 7704 is flat on the day and +2.02% on five days at 72% of range. AUD/JPY, the risk barometer, is 111.05, down 0.24% on the day and unchanged over five days at 28% of its 20-day range — soft, but that is an Australian jobs story rather than a global fear story. The stress is in bonds, not equities: yields spiking with S&P futures holding flat, and the Trump-Xi summit extended the trade truce with no fresh escalation.

Helps USDHurts AUD
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Downhelps —
hurts AUD
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, JPY, CHF
oil Flathelps CAD
hurts —

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

USDUp
3 of 3
Rate 3.63% · next not in feed; late October FOMC
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Tariff and sanctions politics remain live, but the Trump-Xi summit extended the truce with no fresh escalation, removing a near-term tail. Revised UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00Z are the only scheduled US data today.
Read more
AUDDown
2 of 3
Rate not available today (FRED Australia series returned a 502 error) · next not in feed; commentary points to an RBA decision next week, early October
Hike · likelyMore dovish than priced
Commodities split: copper is +2.25% on five days at 88% of range, but SMM has iron ore supply and demand already weakening with softer premiums.
Read more
CHFDown
2 of 3
Rate 0.00% SNB policy rate; 3M interbank -0.045% · next not in feed; next quarterly SNB assessment in December
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Haven demand is fading with gold at 8% of its 20-day range, and a domestic neutrality vote on Russia sanctions adds political noise without a rate consequence.
Read more
CADDown
1 of 3
Rate not available today (FRED Canada series returned a 502 error) · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · likelyAs priced
Oil is the whole trade and it is unhelpful: WTI -7.71% over five days, with FXStreet naming falling oil and a stronger dollar as the reason the loonie weakened.
Read more
GBPUp
1 of 3
Rate 3.7313% · next not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks 25 September 09:15Z
Hike · toss upMore hawkish than priced
Positioning is the amplifier: specs are net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest, changed by just 121 on the week — a heavy, static short into a hawkish catalyst.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.5% · next not in feed; late October ECB
Hold · likelyAs priced
Energy import costs with gas at 95% of its 20-day range are a terms-of-trade drag, and the ECB leadership contest adds headline noise without a rate consequence.
Read more
JPYFlat
1 of 3
Rate 0.977% · next not in feed; late October BOJ
Hold · leaningAs priced
Verbal intervention has escalated a tier: Trump raised yen weakness directly with PM Takaichi, Japan's finance minister confirmed currency coordination principles remain in effect, and the yen jumped as the market read it as intervention. Asian press has the yen nearing 160 and on intervention watch.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−389 pips
3 won, 8 lost, 3 open
Ideas
36%
9 right of 25, 15 pending
Currency calls
33%
20 right of 61, 16 pending
Open trades
3
AUD/JPY short, USD/CHF long, GBP/AUD long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades −389Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas −766Sep 10Sep 25

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 2 of 922% of 9Conviction 1Conviction 1: 1 of 1100% of 1

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades1520%3 / 8 / 4 other−389.33 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21118%2 / 7 / 2 other−344.3
Conviction 11100%1 / 0+80.0
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions825%2 / 4 / 2 other−110.3
2 of 4 conditions20%0 / 1 / 1 other−119.6
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas2536%9 / 14 / 2 flat−765.615 pending, next Mon, Sep 28
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls6133%20 / 24 / 17 flat16 pending, next Mon, Sep 28
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 31850%9 / 9
Conviction 22722%6 / 21
Conviction 11136%4 / 7

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dpendingpending
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dpendingpending
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dpendingpending
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#18 entered at 1.8832", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Fri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 briefTue, Sep 8 fullTue, Sep 8 briefMon, Sep 7 fullMon, Sep 7 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC