ECCO

FX research desk
Wed, Sep 30, 2026
Updated 22:30 UTC

Desk view

risk-off (mild). Up: JPY, USD, GBP. Down: AUD, CAD, CHF. 2 trades today: long USD/CAD, short AUD/JPY.

Trades today

USD/CAD #23
Longconviction 1
Entry1.41900
Target1.43200
Stop1.41080
Canada is the only currency with a falling policy rate on the board, 2.27% to 2.25%, with CPI falling to 2.32% from 2.64% at the last print and GDP forecast at 0.0% from 0.3%. The offset that normally rescues the loonie has turned: Brent fell 6.15% in a session and 6.60% on the week to 96.28 on Saudi supply recovery, w…
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending
AUD/JPY #22
Shortconviction 2
Entry109.450
Target107.600
Stop110.450
The two ends of the board are the two legs of this pair: the yen leads the basket at +1.35% over five days while the Australian dollar is last at -1.27%. Australia delivered the hike to 4.60% on 29 September and the very next print undercut it, August CPI at 4.0% against 4.1% forecast, with the domestic read that a Nov…
conditions1.9× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

CAD/JPY Short 4d — Same yen leg as the AUD/JPY trade with a weaker second leg on oil, and it already sits at 9% of its 20-day range. Held back only to avoid doubling the yen exposure; I would take it if Brent fails to reclaim 100.

EUR/USD Short 3d — The euro softened below 1.1350 on Lagarde's dovish tilt and price sits at 6% of its 20-day range with the dollar index at 92% of its own. I am waiting on the 2 October euro area flash CPI at 3.7% forecast, which is the one print that could force ECB hike pricing higher and squeeze this.

GBP/AUD Long 4d — The widest two-sided path gap after the Australian CPI miss: the UK immediate rate is ticking up and Bailey speaks 1 October, against an RBA whose November hike just got priced out, and sterling specs are the most crowded short on the board at 33.7% of open interest. I am not adding a third sterling long to the book; I want Bailey to confirm the lean first.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-offmild

VIX is 16.04, up 12.88% over five days but only at 44% of its 20-day range, while the S&P 500 is down 1.21% over five days and still at 59% of range. The credit-sensitive barometer is clearer: AUD/JPY at 109.450 is down 2.27% in five days and sits at 11% of its 20-day range, and the yen leads the basket. Gold at 4207.8 is down 4.29% over twenty days at 16% of range, so this is a rates-driven de-risking, not a classic haven panic.

Helps JPY, USDHurts AUD, CAD
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD, CAD
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Uphelps AUD
hurts —
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, CHF, GBP, JPY
oil Downhelps JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

AUDDown
2 of 3
Rate 4.35% per FRED (August); the RBA hiked to 4.60% on 29 September · next Not in feed; next RBA decision November
Hold · leaningMore dovish than priced
Commodities are the offset that is not working. Iron ore is rising on Chinese factory data and copper is up 1.25% on the day, yet AUD/USD still made a nine-week low.
Read more
CADDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.25% (Canada immediate rate, August, down from 2.27%) · next Not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Oil, which should be the offset, has turned against it: Brent fell 6.15% in a day and the Canadian dollar is subdued near two-month lows as falling oil weighs. Tariff escalation continues, with Trump using a Depression-era law to ban Canadian alcohol and Carney attacking a US steelmaker over layoffs.
Read more
CHFDown
2 of 3
Rate 0.00% SNB policy rate confirmed 24 September; 3M interbank -0.045% (August) · next Not in feed; next quarterly assessment in December. Schlegel speaks 1 October 15:30Z and Swiss CPI prints 1 October 06:30Z, forecast 0.0% m/m
Hold · likelyAs priced
The haven leg is absent: gold is down 4.29% over twenty days at 16% of range, so the mild risk-off tape is flowing to the yen, not the franc.
Read more
JPYUp
2 of 3
Rate 0.977% (Japan immediate rate, August) · next Not in feed; late October BOJ. Tokyo core CPI 1 October 23:30Z is the key input
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Intervention risk remains live and explicit: the yen edged higher specifically on verbal warnings. Specs cut net longs by 48,377 to 71,982 contracts, so the squeeze fuel is partly spent.
Read more
USDUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.63% (Fed funds effective, August) · next Not in feed; late October FOMC. Nearest scheduled Fed event is Waller speaking 1 October 14:00Z
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Trade politics still cut the dollar's way: G20 trade officials meet under the shadow of tariffs and Washington has escalated against Canada with a Depression-era ban on Canadian alcohol.
Read more
GBPUp
1 of 3
Rate 3.7313% (UK immediate rate, August, rising) · next Not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks 1 October 08:00Z
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Positioning is the amplifier. Specs are net short 82,568 contracts, 33.7% of open interest, having added 23,853 in the week, the most crowded short on the board.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.50% (ECB deposit rate) · next Not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde speaks 1 October 13:30Z
Hold · leaningAs priced
Terms of trade have improved at the margin with Brent down 6.60% over five days, but the trade axis is a new risk: Beijing has warned of retaliation if the EU imposes curbs on Chinese businesses.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−126 pips
5 won, 8 lost, 6 open
Ideas
39%
14 right of 36, 15 pending
Currency calls
35%
25 right of 72, 22 pending
Open trades
6
USD/CHF long, CHF/JPY short, GBP/CHF long, GBP/CAD long, AUD/JPY short, USD/CAD long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades — #18 GBP/AUD long target — cumulative −286 pipsTrades — #16 AUD/JPY short target — cumulative −126 pipsTrades −126Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/GBP long flat — cumulative −872 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/CAD long right — cumulative −847 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/USD short right — cumulative −803 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/CHF short wrong — cumulative −826 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/AUD long right — cumulative −723 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −696 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −771 pipsIdeas −771Sep 10Sep 30

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 3 of 1030% of 10Conviction 1Conviction 1: 2 of 2100% of 2

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades1729%5 / 8 / 4 other−126.36 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21225%3 / 7 / 2 other−184.3
Conviction 12100%2 / 0+183.0
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions1040%4 / 4 / 2 other+152.7
2 of 4 conditions20%0 / 1 / 1 other−119.6
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas3639%14 / 18 / 4 flat−771.515 pending, next Thu, Oct 1
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls7235%25 / 27 / 20 flat22 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 32050%10 / 10
Conviction 23324%8 / 25
Conviction 11443%6 / 8

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
23Sep 30USD/CADLong1.4191.4321.41084dpendingpending
22Sep 30AUD/JPYShort109.45107.6110.454dpendingpending
21Sep 29GBP/CADLong1.87781.89121.86954dpendingpending
20Sep 29GBP/CHFLong1.10251.11081.09724dpendingpending
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dpendingpending
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dtarget+103.0
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dpendingpending
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dtarget+160.0
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#23 entered at 1.419", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 30CAD/JPYShort4d110.596due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 30EUR/USDShort3d1.13482due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 30GBP/AUDLong4d1.89858due Tue, Oct 6pending
Sep 29CAD/JPYShort4d110.877due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29EUR/CHFLong4d0.94605due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29EUR/USDShort4d1.13598due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29USD/CADLong4d1.41888due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975wrong−22.9
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328right+43.7
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808right+103.4
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820wrong−75.8
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804right+27.1
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895right+24.9
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824flat−0.6
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Wed, Sep 30 fullWed, Sep 30 briefTue, Sep 29 fullTue, Sep 29 briefMon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Wed, Sep 3006:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 2906:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC