ECCO

FX research desk
Wed, Oct 7, 2026
Updated 06:05 UTC

Desk view

risk-on (mild). Up: GBP, USD. Down: CHF, JPY. 1 trade today: long GBP/CHF.

Trades today

GBP/CHF #31
Longconviction 2
Entry1.10410
Target1.11200
Stop1.09820
This pairs the strongest currency on the five-day basket, sterling at +0.45%, against the one whose only driver is unwinding: the franc's bid came from French sovereign stress, and France has filed its budget, concerns have eased and the franc is declining ahead of the reserves data. The rate side supports it too, with…
conditions1.3× risk5 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/CHF Long 3d — The other side of the franc unwind, with copper +1.11% over five days at the 64th percentile and the RBA the only bank on the board with a rate that recently went up. I want an iron ore or China datapoint before paying for it; the RBA's AI-slump warning is the first dovish flag in that story.

EUR/GBP Short 4d — Same sterling leg, cleaner trend: 0.84753 is at the 10th percentile of its twenty-day range after -1.12% in five days, with the euro last on the basket at -0.81%. I am not booking it alongside GBP/CHF because the two share a leg; a Bailey-driven break of the 0.84600 range low is the trigger.

EUR/USD Short 3d — DXY at 102.08 is at the 88th percentile and the 10-year at 5.269% at the 86th, while EUR/USD at 1.12334 sits at 15% of its range below a 1.14196 20-day average. I am waiting on tonight's FOMC minutes; the easing of French stress is the counterweight that keeps me out for now.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-onmild

The S&P 500 at 7819 is +1.93% over five days at the 92nd percentile of its twenty-day range, and VIX at 15.01 is -6.42% over five days at the 18th percentile. The confirmation is incomplete: AUD/JPY at 110.359 is only +0.32% over five days and sits mid-range at 42%, and the Nikkei fell 609 yen on profit-taking in AI and semiconductor names. Gold at the 9th percentile of its range and the easing of French fiscal concerns after the budget filing both argue the haven bid is being unwound rather than rebuilt.

Helps USD, AUD, CAD, GBPHurts JPY, CHF
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD
hurts JPY
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Flathelps —
hurts —
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
oil Uphelps CAD
hurts JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

CHFDown
1 of 3
Rate -0.05% (3M interbank) · next Not in feed; December quarterly assessment. Schlegel last spoke 2026-10-01 15:30Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
The French sovereign story drove the haven bid and is now fading: France filed its budget, concerns eased, and EUR/CHF is +0.36% on the day off the 0.92617 low. Foreign currency reserves data is due and the franc is softening ahead of it.
Read more
GBPUp
1 of 3
Rate 3.73% · next Not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks 2026-10-08 12:15Z, high impact
Hold · leaningAs priced
Positioning is the story. Specs are net short 91,075 contracts, 36.2% of open interest, after adding 8,507 shorts, the most crowded short on the board, which makes sterling the squeeze candidate on any hawkish Bailey line.
Read more
JPYDown
1 of 3
Rate 0.98% · next Not in feed; late October BOJ. Ueda spoke 2026-10-06 06:35Z and the market is watching the October BoJ report
Hold · leaningAs priced
Intervention risk is the cap. USD/JPY at 158.351 is at the 89th percentile of its twenty-day range with the range high at 158.996; my own record says do not fade an official near 160, so the downside in the yen is bounded even if the differential widens.
Read more
USDUp
1 of 3
Rate 3.75% · next Not in feed; late October FOMC. The nearest scheduled Fed events are the FOMC Meeting Minutes 2026-10-07 18:00Z and Waller 2026-10-08 08:30Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
Long-end supply and tariff-driven inflation anxiety keep real yields high and the dollar bid; DXY at 102.08 is at the 88th percentile of its twenty-day range after +3.35% in twenty days.
Read more
AUDFlat
1 of 3
Rate 4.35% · next Not in feed; November RBA
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
China-linked commodities are only half supportive: copper is +1.11% over five days at the 64th percentile of its range, but there is no iron ore news or feed today to confirm the rebound.
Read more
CADFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.25% carried from the previous board; today's FRED Canada rate series returned a 502 error and is not available · next Not in feed; BoC decision expected in October. Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 2026-10-09 12:30Z are the decisive data
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Oil is the offset and it has turned: crude above $90 on Iranian and Houthi attacks plus a Gulf storm, with USD/CAD slipping as the supply outlook supports the loonie into the jobs print. Tariffs on Canadian goods remain a live political irritant.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.50% · next Not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde last spoke 2026-10-01 13:30Z and an ECB speaker is on the Asia calendar today
Hold · likelyAs priced
French fiscal and political stress remains the whole euro trade, but it is easing at the margin: the budget was filed, the euro won back its slide from a fresh low, and the franc bid is unwinding. The offset is the street: UBS warns hard measures are needed on French debt and school protests met tear gas in Paris and Marseille.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−461 pips
5 won, 14 lost, 3 open
Ideas
46%
25 right of 54, 15 pending
Currency calls
35%
34 right of 97, 21 pending
Open trades
3
EUR/AUD short, USD/CAD long, GBP/CHF long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades — #18 GBP/AUD long target — cumulative −286 pipsTrades — #16 AUD/JPY short target — cumulative −126 pipsTrades — #17 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −52 pipsTrades — #24 EUR/CHF long stop — cumulative −95 pipsTrades — #20 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −148 pipsTrades — #25 EUR/AUD long stop — cumulative −245 pipsTrades — #26 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −301 pipsTrades — #19 CHF/JPY short expired — cumulative −345 pipsTrades — #21 GBP/CAD long expired — cumulative −269 pipsTrades — #22 AUD/JPY short expired — cumulative −340 pipsTrades — #23 USD/CAD long expired — cumulative −260 pipsTrades — #27 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #28 CAD/CHF short stop — cumulative −461 pipsTrades −461Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/GBP long flat — cumulative −872 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/CAD long right — cumulative −847 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/USD short right — cumulative −803 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/CHF short wrong — cumulative −826 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/AUD long right — cumulative −723 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −696 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −771 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −713 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/CHF long right — cumulative −675 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −576 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/GBP short right — cumulative −485 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 AUD/CAD short right — cumulative −411 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −370 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −218 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 GBP/CHF long wrong — cumulative −244 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −410 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −333 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −508 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −343 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −306 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −334 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 CAD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −352 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-01 USD/JPY short right — cumulative −332 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-02 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −361 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-02 USD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −419 pipsIdeas −419Sep 10Oct 7

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 3 of 1421% of 14Conviction 1Conviction 1: 2 of 450% of 4

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades2818%5 / 14 / 9 other−460.53 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21916%3 / 11 / 5 other−532.1
Conviction 1633%2 / 2 / 2 other+196.6
4 of 4 conditions20%0 / 2−85.0
3 of 4 conditions1822%4 / 8 / 6 other−153.3
2 of 4 conditions40%0 / 2 / 2 other−94.8
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas5446%25 / 25 / 4 flat−419.015 pending, next Wed, Oct 7
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls9735%34 / 34 / 29 flat21 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 32152%11 / 10
Conviction 25223%12 / 40
Conviction 11953%10 / 9

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
31Oct 7GBP/CHFLong1.10411.1121.09825dpendingpending
30Oct 6USD/CADLong1.42671.4391.4194dpendingpending
29Oct 6EUR/AUDShort1.60871.5931.6194dpendingpending
28Oct 5CAD/CHFShort0.58120.5740.58585dstop−46.0
27Oct 5EUR/JPYShort176.65174.3178.24dstop−155.0
26Oct 2AUD/CADShort0.98560.9770.99124dstop−56.0
25Oct 1EUR/AUDLong1.62921.6451.61954dstop−97.0
24Oct 1EUR/CHFLong0.94680.95380.94254dstop−43.0
23Sep 30USD/CADLong1.4191.4321.41084dexpired+80.8
22Sep 30AUD/JPYShort109.45107.6110.454dexpired−71.0
21Sep 29GBP/CADLong1.87781.89121.86954dexpired+75.8
20Sep 29GBP/CHFLong1.10251.11081.09724dstop−53.0
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dexpired−44.1
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dtarget+103.0
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dexpired+74.3
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dtarget+160.0
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#31 entered at 1.1041", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Oct 7AUD/CHFLong3d0.58084due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 7EUR/GBPShort4d0.84753due Tue, Oct 13pending
Oct 7EUR/USDShort3d1.12334due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6AUD/CADLong4d0.99446due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6AUD/CHFLong4d0.57955due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6EUR/GBPShort4d0.84845due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6USD/JPYLong3d158.071due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5CAD/JPYShort4d110.525due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/GBPShort4d0.84724due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/USDShort4d1.11957due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5GBP/AUDLong5d1.90313due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 2EUR/CHFShort3d0.93297wrong−29.0
Oct 2EUR/GBPShort4d0.85161due Thu, Oct 8pending
Oct 2GBP/AUDLong4d1.90501due Thu, Oct 8pending
Oct 2USD/JPYShort3d157.766wrong−58.1
Oct 1EUR/CADLong4d1.61276due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1GBP/AUDLong4d1.90667due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1USD/JPYShort3d158.346right+20.4
Sep 30CAD/JPYShort4d110.596wrong−18.3
Sep 30EUR/USDShort3d1.13482right+152.5
Sep 30GBP/AUDLong4d1.89858wrong−27.8
Sep 29CAD/JPYShort4d110.877right+36.9
Sep 29EUR/CHFLong4d0.94605wrong−174.9
Sep 29EUR/USDShort4d1.13598right+165.3
Sep 29USD/CADLong4d1.41888right+77.0
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381right+74.2
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385right+40.8
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523wrong−166.7
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942wrong−25.8
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292right+38.4
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061right+90.5
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792right+58.0
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486right+99.1
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975wrong−22.9
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328right+43.7
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808right+103.4
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820wrong−75.8
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804right+27.1
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895right+24.9
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824flat−0.6
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1

Reports

Daily reports

Wed, Oct 7 fullWed, Oct 7 briefTue, Oct 6 fullTue, Oct 6 briefMon, Oct 5 fullMon, Oct 5 briefFri, Oct 2 fullFri, Oct 2 briefThu, Oct 1 fullThu, Oct 1 briefWed, Sep 30 fullWed, Sep 30 briefTue, Sep 29 fullTue, Sep 29 briefMon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Wed, Oct 706:00 UTC
Mon, Oct 506:00 UTC
Fri, Oct 206:00 UTC
Thu, Oct 106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 3006:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 2906:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC