ECCO

FX research desk
Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Updated 12:30 UTC

Desk view

risk-on (clear). Up: USD, AUD. Down: CAD, GBP, JPY, EUR. 1 trade today: short GBP/USD.

Trades today

GBP/USD #15
Shortconviction 2
Entry1.33130
Target1.32150
Stop1.33750
The Fed took the target to 4.00% from 3.75% on 16 September with fresh projections and the market is pricing further tightening, with the 10Y at 4.96% near the top of its range and DXY at 100% of its 20-day range, while the MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September on a 3-0-6 vote and spent the meeting on gilt sales …
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/CHF Long 3d — Bullock says inflation fears are materialising and that unemployment may need to rise to 5%, against an SNB forecast to hold at 0.00% with a negative 3M interbank rate. Copper +6.03% over five days supports the Aussie leg. Waiting for tomorrow's Australian employment print, forecast +22.5K after -15.8K, and the SNB presser; I already carry two AUD longs in the book.

EUR/CAD Long 4d — WTI is -12.75% over five days on Iran diplomacy, the Hormuz reopening and a Saudi pipeline restart, and the loonie is described as vulnerable on exactly that. Canadian retail sales tomorrow are forecast -0.8%. Not trading it because the book is already short CAD twice and 1.60895 is mid-range.

EUR/GBP Long 4d — The cleanest sterling short without dollar exposure: UK borrowing and a Deutsche Bank sell call against Lagarde's prolonged-inflation warning and Nagel's restrictive-policy comment. I am not trading it because 0.85824 sits mid-range with a 21-pip ATR; I want a close above the 20-day high of 0.86075 first.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-onclear

VIX is 14.87, down 13.04% over five days and at 21% of its 20-day range, with the S&P 500 at 7765, up 1.90% over five days and at 95% of range. Gold has fallen 6.95% over 20 days to 21% of range and AUD/JPY is +1.16% over five days, both consistent with haven demand draining. Headlines describe stocks holding near a record after the oil dip and Asian equities gaining on a tech surge, with no credit stress in the feed.

Helps AUD, USDHurts JPY, CHF
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD, CAD
hurts JPY
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Uphelps AUD
hurts JPY
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF
oil Downhelps JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

USDUp
3 of 3
Rate 3.63% effective (FRED, August); the FOMC target was raised to 4.00% from 3.75% on 16 September · next not in feed; late October FOMC
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Tariff politics is constant background noise, including warnings that tariffs on Canada could hit manufacturing jobs, but it has not dented the bid.
Read more
AUDUp
2 of 3
Rate 4.35% · next not in feed; commentary points to a decision in the coming week
Hike · likelyAs priced
Commodities are supportive on both legs: copper +6.03% over five days at 85% of range, and iron ore reported rising on supply risks and Brazilian weather disruption.
Read more
CADDown
2 of 3
Rate not in feed; the FRED Canada rate series failed today [Source: Data errors] · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Oil is the whole trade. WTI -12.75% in five days on Iran diplomacy and Hormuz reopening, with the loonie described as vulnerable on exactly that, and tariff risk to Canadian manufacturing in the background.
Read more
GBPDown
2 of 3
Rate 3.75% Bank Rate (FRED UK series failed today) · next not in feed; next MPC decision in November, Bailey speaks 25 September 09:15Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
Positioning is heavy and static: large specs net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest, essentially unchanged on the week, so there is no fresh fuel from shorts but also no squeeze trigger.
Read more
JPYDown
2 of 3
Rate 0.977% immediate rate (FRED, August); the BOJ raised the policy rate on 18 September to below 1.25% from below 1.00% · next not in feed; next BOJ decision late October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Intervention is the live cap. USD/JPY is 157.63 with potential intervention explicitly eyed, and specs are net long yen 120,359 contracts, 22.2% of open interest, after a +109,563 weekly build, a crowded long that bleeds as the pair grinds higher.
Read more
EURDown
1 of 3
Rate 2.50% deposit rate · next not in feed; the ECB decided 10 September, next decision late October
Hold · leaningAs priced
The ECB itself flags China's industrial rise squeezing German manufacturers out of global markets, and US nat gas at 94% of range keeps the energy-cost drag alive.
Read more
CHFFlat
1 of 3
Rate 0.00% SNB policy rate; 3M interbank -0.045% (FRED, August) · next 2026-09-24 07:30Z SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, press conference 08:00Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
The franc cuts both ways: it firmed 0.55% against the basket over five days on its haven bid, but it is a carry-funding currency in a risk-on tape and weakened on hawkish Fed sentiment.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−374 pips
0 won, 6 lost, 6 open
Ideas
20%
3 right of 15, 16 pending
Currency calls
32%
16 right of 50, 17 pending
Open trades
6
AUD/CAD long, GBP/AUD short, USD/CAD long, EUR/JPY long, USD/CHF long, GBP/USD short

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades −374Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas −1052Sep 10Sep 23

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 0 of 50% of 5

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades90%0 / 6 / 3 other−374.16 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 260%0 / 5 / 1 other−249.1
Conviction 10———
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions40%0 / 3 / 1 other−175.1
2 of 4 conditions10%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas1520%3 / 10 / 2 flat−1051.816 pending, next Thu, Sep 24
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls5032%16 / 20 / 14 flat17 pending, next Thu, Sep 24
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 31553%8 / 7
Conviction 22223%5 / 17
Conviction 1825%2 / 6

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dpendingpending
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dpendingpending
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dpendingpending
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dpendingpending
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dpendingpending
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dpendingpending
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#15 entered at 1.3313", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824due Tue, Sep 29pending
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Wed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 briefTue, Sep 8 fullTue, Sep 8 briefMon, Sep 7 fullMon, Sep 7 briefSat, Sep 5 full

Runs

DateStarted
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC