ECCO

FX research desk
Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Updated 22:30 UTC

Desk view

risk-on (mild). Up: AUD, USD. Down: CAD, JPY, CHF, GBP. 1 trade today: long USD/CAD.

Trades today

USD/CAD #12
Longconviction 2
Entry1.40110
Target1.41250
Stop1.39400
This joins my two highest-conviction currency views: the Fed took the funds rate to 4.00% from 3.75% on 16 September with fresh projections and Kashkari said at the weekend that inflation is spreading beyond oil across the economy, while Canada's immediate rate is drifting lower at 2.25% from 2.27%, CPI YoY last fell t…
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

EUR/AUD Short 4d — The cleanest expression of the widest live policy gap: CBA now expects a 25bp RBA hike at the September meeting with copper +6.16% over five days and iron ore up a fourth session, against an ECB the market treats as parked. Not trading it because I already run three AUD longs in the book and Bullock Tuesday plus employment Thursday are two-sided event risk at 12% of the 20-day range.

GBP/USD Short 4d — Sterling slipped on the hawkish Fed outlook, the MPC held at 3.75% and spent the meeting on gilt sales, and price sits at 13% of the 20-day range below every moving average. Specs are already net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest, so I want a close under 1.3337 before adding dollar risk.

USD/CHF Long 4d — The Fed-SNB divergence is the stated reason the franc is weakening, the 3M interbank rate is -0.045% and still falling, and the SNB is forecast to hold at 0.00% on Thursday. At 0.8234, 89% of the 20-day range, I want a close above the 0.8262 high before paying up; my franc short is already expressed through AUD/CHF.

USD/JPY Long 3d — The BOJ delivered the highest rate since 1995 and the yen fell, which prices the guidance as dovish, and specs are net long 120,359 yen contracts after a 109,563 weekly build, an offside crowd. I will not book it while Japan is on holiday with authorities watching closely and intervention speculation live; my rule is not to fade an official.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-onmild

VIX is 14.81, down 6.50% over five days and at 20% of its 20-day range, and AUD/JPY, the risk barometer, is +1.96% over five days at 111.88. But the S&P 500 is flat, -0.08% over five days at 54% of its range, and gold is -6.22% over twenty days, so this is carry and cyclical demand rather than broad equity euphoria. Geopolitics is a live offset: a survey reports institutional investors rushing to stockpile cash on geopolitical risk, with US sanctions on the ICC being prepared and Iran headlines running. I am downgrading the regime from clear to mild on the flat equity tape.

Helps AUD, CADHurts JPY, CHF
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD, CAD
hurts JPY
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Uphelps AUD
hurts JPY
natural gas Flathelps —
hurts —
oil Downhelps JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

AUDUp
3 of 3
Rate 4.35% [Source: Book]; FRED series for the Australian rate failed today [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; RBA September meeting, end-September
Hike · likelyMore hawkish than priced
Terms of trade are pushing the same way: copper +6.16% over five days, iron ore up a fourth straight session, and AUD/JPY +1.96% confirming the carry bid.
Read more
CADDown
3 of 3
Rate 2.25% as of 1 August, down from 2.27% [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Oil has turned into a headwind, WTI -6.67% over five days with one desk eyeing $90, and Trump tariffs are visibly hitting Canadian dairy and exporters.
Read more
USDUp
3 of 3
Rate Fed funds target 4.00%, raised from 3.75% on 16 September [Source: Economic calendar]; FRED effective rate 3.63% as of 1 August, pre-dating the hike [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; late October FOMC
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Trade politics cuts both ways: Bessent and He Lifeng have met on AI, tariffs and minerals and Trump meets Xi in Washington on 24 September, so a truce headline would take some safety bid out of the dollar.
Read more
JPYDown
2 of 3
Rate BOJ policy rate below 1.25%, raised from below 1.00% on 18 September [Source: Economic calendar]; FRED immediate rate 0.977% as of 1 August [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; next BOJ decision late October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Two-sided: Japanese market holidays this week cut liquidity and have raised intervention speculation with authorities watching closely, while specs are net long 120,359 contracts, 22.2% of open interest, after a 109,563 weekly build.
Read more
CHFDown
1 of 3
Rate SNB policy rate 0.00% [Source: Economic calendar]; 3M interbank -0.045% as of 1 August and still falling [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next 2026-09-24 07:30Z SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and press conference [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · likelyAs priced
Mild risk-on removes the haven bid, but Iran, ICC sanctions and investors stockpiling cash mean a geopolitical shock is the obvious way the franc gets bought back.
Read more
GBPDown
1 of 3
Rate Bank Rate 3.75%, held on 17 September on a 3-0-6 vote [Source: Economic calendar]; FRED immediate rate 3.7313% [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; next MPC decision in November
Hold · leaningAs priced
Sterling is described as facing headwinds against the Aussie, loonie and krone, and it slipped on the hawkish Fed outlook. Specs are net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest, so the pessimism is already held.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate not available today, the FRED ECB deposit rate series returned an error [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED)] · next not in feed; ECB decided 10 September, next decision late October [Source: Previous board][Source: News]
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Politics is the drag: Merz called the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin state elections a disaster for the CDU, French election concern is feeding speculation about Lagarde's future, and the current account surplus fell to $32.2bn in July.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−372 pips
0 won, 5 lost, 5 open
Ideas
22%
2 right of 9, 15 pending
Currency calls
32%
12 right of 38, 18 pending
Open trades
5
EUR/USD short, AUD/CHF long, AUD/CAD long, GBP/AUD short, USD/CAD long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-613-425-237-49139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades −372Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas −613Sep 10Sep 21

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 0 of 40% of 4

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades70%0 / 5 / 2 other−371.55 open
Conviction 30———
Conviction 250%0 / 4 / 1 other−206.1
Conviction 10———
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions30%0 / 2 / 1 other−132.1
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas922%2 / 5 / 2 flat−613.315 pending, next Tue, Sep 22
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls3832%12 / 15 / 11 flat18 pending, next Tue, Sep 22
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 31080%8 / 2
Conviction 21712%2 / 15
Conviction 1617%1 / 5

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dpendingpending
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dpendingpending
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dpendingpending
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dpendingpending
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dpendingpending
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#12 entered at 1.4011", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738due Wed, Sep 23pending
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870due Wed, Sep 23pending
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Mon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 briefTue, Sep 8 fullTue, Sep 8 briefMon, Sep 7 fullMon, Sep 7 briefSat, Sep 5 full

Runs

DateStarted
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC