ECCO

FX research desk
Thu, Sep 17, 2026
Updated 06:03 UTC

Desk view

risk-off (mild). Up: USD, JPY. Down: CHF, EUR, CAD. 2 trades today: long AUD/CHF, short EUR/USD.

Trades today

AUD/CHF #9
Longconviction 2
Entry0.58650
Target0.59300
Stop0.58220
The franc is being sold as a funding leg, not bought as a haven: it hit a 15-month low, sits near 16-month lows against the dollar, the 3M interbank rate is -0.045% and still falling, and carry traders are reported to be eyeing it as the yen's funding appeal ebbs. Against that I want the currency with a live hike, and …
conditions1.5× risk5 days · pending
EUR/USD #8
Shortconviction 3
Entry1.14690
Target1.13750
Stop1.15270
This joins my two highest-conviction currency views in one pair: the Fed took the funds rate to 4.00% from 3.75% and the path repriced after the event, with Goldman ditching one-and-done and TD forecasting hikes in October and January, while the 2Y sits at 4.67% and the 10Y at 5.00%, both at or near 20-day highs. The e…
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/USD Short 3d — The dollar is the strongest currency in the basket at +1.47% over five days and the Fed is the only bank with two more hikes being priced. Today's bounce to 0.71109 off 0.70872 is corrective; I would rather own the Australian dollar against the franc than fight the dollar with it.

CHF/JPY Short 4d — The weakest rate path against the only central bank forecast to move tomorrow: the BOJ policy-rate forecast is below 1.25% from below 1.00%, and the franc's 3M rate is negative and falling. At 188.738 it is already 8% of its 20-day range and 4.86% lower over twenty days, so I am waiting for the press conference at 05:30Z rather than paying for the gap.

EUR/CHF Long 5d — UBS sees a retest of 0.96 as the franc lags on low yield, and at 0.94614 the cross is 91% of its 20-day range. I am short the euro elsewhere, so I will not double the franc leg here; a Lagarde tone shift on Friday is what would make me take it.

USD/CAD Long 4d — The policy gap is 175bp and widening, September CPI was forecast at -0.1% m/m with median at 2.0%, and oil is now easing as Middle East supply fears fade. At 1.39870, 96% of the 20-day range, I want a pullback toward 1.3930 before paying up, and CAD specs are already net short 70,499.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-offmild

VIX at 17.71 is up 7.59% in five days and 18.94% in twenty, at 76% of its range, while the S&P 500 at 7552 is down 1.11% in five days and sits at 17% of its 20-day range. AUD/JPY at 110.66 is at 19% of its 20-day range, down 1.83% over twenty days, confirming the credit-sensitive channel is heavy. But gold is down 4.59% in twenty days and at 13% of range, so this is a yield-driven de-rating rather than panic: higher US rates weigh on equity valuations and global growth.

Helps USD, JPYHurts AUD, CAD, CHF
Commodities
copper Flathelps AUD
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Flathelps —
hurts —
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, JPY, CHF
oil Downhelps JPY, EUR, CHF
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

CHFDown
3 of 3
Rate -0.045% 3M interbank rate · next not in feed; SNB quarterly assessment due late September
Hold · likelyAs priced
This remains the whole story and it has intensified. The franc hit a 15-month low and sits near 16-month lows against the dollar, UBS sees EUR/CHF retesting 0.96 as the franc lags on low yield, and carry traders are eyeing the franc as the yen's funding appeal ebbs. A currency being sold as a funding leg does not rally on mild risk-off.
Read more
EURDown
3 of 3
Rate 2.50% deposit rate · next not in feed; ECB decided 10 September, next decision late October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Trump has threatened very heavy tariffs and even a halt to trade with Europe over the Canada associate-membership proposal, and French bond yields are surging with questions over whether the ECB steps in. Both are euro-negative.
Read more
USDUp
3 of 3
Rate 3.63% effective (Aug 2026); FOMC target raised to 4.00% from 3.75% on 16 September · next not in feed; next FOMC late October
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Tariff politics cut both ways: threats against the EU over Canada's associate-membership bid and a sanctions bill with up to 100% tariffs on energy buyers raise the dollar's relative appeal while damaging global growth.
Read more
CADDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.25% · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Oil should be carrying this and is not: WTI is +18.44% over twenty days while CAD is -0.38% against the basket, and crude is now easing. Trade politics are additive negatives, with Trump threatening tariffs over the Canada-EU proposal.
Read more
JPYUp
2 of 3
Rate 0.977% immediate rate · next 2026-09-18 02:30Z BOJ
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Two-sided. Tokyo vows effort to maintain orderly yen moves and corporate leaders are sounding the alarm over yen weakness, which is intervention-adjacent rhetoric. Against that, the Fed's hike widens the differential and specs flipped to net long 10,796 on a 103,023 swing, so the easy positioning fuel is spent.
Read more
AUDFlat
1 of 3
Rate 4.35% · next not in feed; RBA Gov Bullock speaks 2026-09-17 23:30Z, next decision early October
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Commodities are neutral-to-helpful: copper +1.49% on the day but flat over twenty, and iron ore news is about tonnage and tenements, not price. Risk-off caps the upside, with AUD/JPY at 19% of its range.
Read more
GBPFlat
1 of 3
Rate 3.7313% immediate rate; Bank Rate 3.75% · next 2026-09-17 11:00Z MPC
Hold · likelyMore hawkish than priced
UK natural gas exposure: US gas up 2.58% in five days and energy costs keep pressure on prices. Retail sales Friday forecast -0.2% is a growth offset.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−247 pips
0 won, 3 lost, 5 open
Ideas
—
none scored yet, 16 pending
Currency calls
36%
8 right of 22, 21 pending
Open trades
5
USD/CHF long, EUR/JPY short, EUR/GBP short, EUR/USD short, AUD/CHF long

Track record

Cumulative pips

-247-186-124-620Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades −247Sep 10Sep 16

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 0 of 20% of 2

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades40%0 / 3 / 1 other−247.45 open
Conviction 30———
Conviction 220%0 / 2−82.0
Conviction 10———
3 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−40.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas0———16 pending, next Fri, Sep 18
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls2236%8 / 8 / 6 flat21 pending, next Thu, Sep 17
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 3786%6 / 1
Conviction 280%0 / 8
Conviction 1250%1 / 1

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dpendingpending
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dpendingpending
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dpendingpending
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dpendingpending
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dpendingpending
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#9 entered at 0.5865", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738due Wed, Sep 23pending
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870due Wed, Sep 23pending
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617due Mon, Sep 21pending
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911due Tue, Sep 22pending
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242due Mon, Sep 21pending
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822due Mon, Sep 21pending
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380due Fri, Sep 18pending
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304due Mon, Sep 21pending
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143due Mon, Sep 21pending
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943due Fri, Sep 18pending
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362due Mon, Sep 21pending
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727due Fri, Sep 18pending

Reports

Daily reports

Thu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 briefTue, Sep 8 fullTue, Sep 8 briefMon, Sep 7 fullMon, Sep 7 briefSat, Sep 5 full

Runs

DateStarted
Thu, Sep 1706:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC