risk-on (clear). Up: AUD, USD. Down: CHF, CAD, JPY, EUR, GBP. 2 trades today: short GBP/AUD, long AUD/CAD.
AUD/JPY Long 4d — The rate gap is 4.35% against 1.25% and the BOJ's 7-2 vote with two dissents tempered the hawkish read, so the yen sold off on its own hike. I want it lower: 111.99 is +1.27% on the day and I am not chasing a post-event spike; a pullback toward 111.00 with copper holding is the entry.
EUR/AUD Short 4d — Same AUD leg against an ECB whose own officials are cancelling each other out — Makhlouf floats October, Vujcic cools oil-fuelled hike bets and a survey has them waiting until December. At 1.6110 it is at 13% of the 20-day range and near the 60-day low; I am waiting for Lagarde at 10:30Z before adding a third AUD long.
GBP/USD Short 4d — Trend is intact at 8% of the 20-day range and below all three moving averages after the BoE hold. I am not adding a second dollar long while the 10Y is -1.18% on the day and DXY sits at 96% of its range.
USD/CAD Long 4d — The widest rate gap in the majors, 4.00% against 2.25%, with oil no longer defending the loonie. Price has stalled three sessions at the top of its range, 1.3992 against a 20-day high of 1.4001; I want a daily close above 1.4010 before paying up.
VIX 15.44, -12.82% on the day and -13.45% over five days, at 32% of its 20-day range, with the S&P 500 +1.14% to 7638. AUD/JPY, the risk barometer, is +1.27% to 111.99 and Japanese equities surged on the BOJ hike as the yen sank. Gold is flat on the day and -3.44% over twenty days at 29% of its range, so there is no haven bid underneath.
Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.
Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.
| What | Scored | Hit rate | Won / lost | Net pips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All trades | 7 | 0% | 0 / 5 / 2 other | −371.5 | 4 open |
| Conviction 3 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| Conviction 2 | 5 | 0% | 0 / 4 / 1 other | −206.1 | |
| Conviction 1 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| 4 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −32.0 | |
| 3 of 4 conditions | 3 | 0% | 0 / 2 / 1 other | −132.1 | |
| 0 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −42.0 | |
| Ideas, direction at the horizon | |||||
| All ideas | 3 | 67% | 2 / 0 / 1 flat | +139.3 | 17 pending, next Mon, Sep 21 |
| Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days | |||||
| All currency calls | 33 | 36% | 12 / 13 / 8 flat | 17 pending, next Mon, Sep 21 | |
| Conviction 4 | 5 | 20% | 1 / 4 | ||
| Conviction 3 | 9 | 89% | 8 / 1 | ||
| Conviction 2 | 15 | 13% | 2 / 13 | ||
| Conviction 1 | 4 | 25% | 1 / 3 | ||
| # | Date | Pair | Side | Conviction | Conditions | Entry | Target | Stop | Horizon | Status | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sep 18 | GBP/AUD | Short | 1.8755 | 1.8575 | 1.8875 | 5d | pending | pending | ||
| 10 | Sep 18 | AUD/CAD | Long | 0.9968 | 1.0075 | 0.9898 | 5d | pending | pending | ||
| 9 | Sep 17 | AUD/CHF | Long | 0.5865 | 0.593 | 0.5822 | 5d | pending | pending | ||
| 8 | Sep 17 | EUR/USD | Short | 1.1469 | 1.1375 | 1.1527 | 4d | pending | pending | ||
| 7 | Sep 16 | GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1038 | 1.111 | 1.0998 | 4d | stop | −40.0 | ||
| 6 | Sep 15 | AUD/CAD | Short | 0.9905 | 0.9825 | 0.9947 | 4d | stop | −42.0 | ||
| 5 | Sep 15 | EUR/GBP | Short | 0.8556 | 0.8505 | 0.8588 | 4d | stop | −32.0 | ||
| 4 | Sep 14 | EUR/JPY | Short | 178.21 | 175.5 | 179.8 | 5d | stop | −159.0 | ||
| 3 | Sep 14 | USD/CHF | Long | 0.8177 | 0.8265 | 0.8122 | 4d | expired | +66.9 | ||
| 2 | Sep 10 | GBP/JPY | Short | 208.25 | 205.6 | 209.7 | 4d | expired | −107.4 | ||
| 1 | Sep 8 | GBP/AUD | Short | 1.8757 | 1.864 | 1.8815 | 4d | stop | −58.0 |
Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#11 entered at 1.8755", and it appears here at the next refresh.
| Date | Pair | Side | Horizon | Reference | Result | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 | AUD/JPY | Long | 4d | 111.986 | due Thu, Sep 24 | pending |
| Sep 18 | EUR/AUD | Short | 4d | 1.61096 | due Thu, Sep 24 | pending |
| Sep 18 | GBP/USD | Short | 4d | 1.33651 | due Thu, Sep 24 | pending |
| Sep 18 | USD/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.39911 | due Thu, Sep 24 | pending |
| Sep 17 | AUD/USD | Short | 3d | 0.71109 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 17 | CHF/JPY | Short | 4d | 188.738 | due Wed, Sep 23 | pending |
| Sep 17 | EUR/CHF | Long | 5d | 0.94614 | due Thu, Sep 24 | pending |
| Sep 17 | USD/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.39870 | due Wed, Sep 23 | pending |
| Sep 16 | AUD/CAD | Short | 4d | 0.99290 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | CHF/JPY | Short | 3d | 189.617 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 16 | EUR/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.94501 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | GBP/USD | Long | 4d | 1.34911 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 15 | AUD/JPY | Short | 4d | 110.242 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 15 | CAD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.58822 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 15 | EUR/USD | Short | 3d | 1.15380 | right | +55.6 |
| Sep 15 | GBP/AUD | Long | 4d | 1.89304 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | AUD/CAD | Short | 5d | 0.99143 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | CAD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.58943 | flat | −2.7 |
| Sep 14 | CHF/JPY | Short | 5d | 188.362 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.15727 | right | +86.4 |
| Date | Started |
|---|---|
| Wed, Sep 16 | 06:01 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 06:00 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 14 | 06:01 UTC |
| Thu, Sep 10 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Sep 9 | 06:00 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 8 | 09:13 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 16:52 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 14:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:10 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 16:29 UTC |