The obvious trade is short CHF/JPY, strongest against weakest, but that cross has already fallen 3.96% in five days and sits at 7% of its 20-day range — chasing it means a stop three ATRs away. GBP/AUD gives me the same directional logic at a third of the speed: a persistent 20-day grind of lower highs (-2.04%) that has consolidated for three sessions on the 1.8733 low, with the event risk sitting on the leg I am short (UK GDP Friday, forecast 0.0%) and no scheduled Australian risk at all. Positioning is also cleaner on the long leg: AUD specs are short only -10.1% of OI versus GBP's -15.6%.
4 of 44 days
Minor conflict
CHF/JPY cross
ShortMedium
This is the cleanest fundamental divergence on the board — strongest currency against weakest, with symmetrical policy behind it — but I am flagging it rather than trading it. JPY is +3.63% and CHF -1.17% on the basket over five days, and the cross has already covered 3.96% in that window to 7% of its 20-day range. Any honest stop sits above 192.89 (the 6 September high), roughly 310 pips away, which breaks my own rule about targets and stops being proportionate to a 2-5 day horizon.
3 of 43 days
Minor conflict
Dollar pairs
GBP/USD
ShortMedium
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
4 of 44 days
Major conflict
AUD/USD
LongMedium
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
3 of 44 days
Major conflict
USD/CHF
LongMedium
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
3 of 44 days
Major conflict
USD/JPY
ShortMedium
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
3 of 43 days
Major conflict
USD/CAD
ShortMedium
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs
2 of 44 days
Major conflict
EUR/USD
No biasLow
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
0 of 43 days
Major conflict
Squares are the four checks in order narrative, catalyst, structure, rates: filled is aligned, crossed is against, empty is neutral; the ringed square is the dominant driver. A pair reaches High only with all four aligned and no major conflict.
Direction reads
—
none scored yet, 16 pending. First result Wed 9 Sept
High-tier trades
1 open
none resolved yet
Best cross idea
Short GBP/AUD
High tier, 1 more idea
Open calls
1
GBP/AUD short
Track record
Cumulative pips by strategy
Nothing has reached its horizon yet. The first direction reads score on Wed 9 Sept.
Hit rate by tier
Hit rates appear once the first reads reach their horizon.
Scorecard
Reads are scored on direction at the horizon; trades on target, stop or expiry; currency calls against the basket at three trading days.
Strategy
Scored
Hit rate
Right / wrong
Net pips
High-tier trades
0
—
—
—
1 open
High reads
0
—
—
—
1 pending, next Mon 14 Sept
Medium reads
0
—
—
—
14 pending, next Wed 9 Sept
Low reads
0
—
—
—
1 pending, next Fri 11 Sept
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls
0
—
—
5 pending, next Fri 11 Sept
Regimes
Pair
Regime
Dominant driver
Held
EUR/USD
Range regime, rate-differential stalemate
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
since Sat 5 Sept
GBP/USD
Rate-differential regime with an energy cost overlay
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
since Sat 5 Sept
USD/JPY
BoJ normalisation and short-squeeze regime
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
since Sat 5 Sept
AUD/USD
Commodity terms-of-trade and carry regime
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
since Sat 5 Sept
USD/CHF
Range regime anchored by SNB negative rates
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
since Sat 5 Sept
USD/CAD
Oil terms-of-trade regime
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs