ECCO

FX research desk
Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Updated 08:30 UTC

Desk view

risk-off (mild). Up: USD, GBP, JPY. Down: CAD, CHF, AUD. 2 trades today: long GBP/CAD, long GBP/CHF.

Trades today

GBP/CAD #21
Longconviction 1
Entry1.87780
Target1.89120
Stop1.86950
Canada is the only currency on my board with a more dovish path: the immediate rate has already drifted to 2.25 from 2.27, CPI was falling at the last print to 2.32% from 2.64%, GDP today is forecast at 0.0% from 0.3%, and the US ban on roughly $1 billion of Canadian imports took effect with negotiations collapsed sinc…
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending
GBP/CHF #20
Longconviction 2
Entry1.10250
Target1.11080
Stop1.09720
This is the widest two-sided path gap left on the board: BoE deputy governors are leaning toward a hike and the pound edged higher on it while options traders position for BoE-driven upside, against an SNB that confirmed 0.00% on 24 September with Schlegel calling Switzerland comfortable on inflation and Friday's Swiss…
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

CAD/JPY Short 4d — Tokyo core CPI on 1 October is forecast at 2.4% from 1.8% three weeks before the BOJ, and the yen leads the basket at +1.08% over five days while CAD is at -0.23%. Holding off because oil extending on supply fears is the one thing that rescues the loonie from 6% of its 20-day range.

EUR/CHF Long 4d — Lagarde says measured hikes remain appropriate and ties higher energy prices to euro area inflation risks, with flash CPI forecast to accelerate to 3.7%, against an SNB pinned at zero with Swiss CPI forecast at 0.0%. Waiting for a close above the 20-day high at 0.94786; I already hold two franc shorts.

EUR/USD Short 4d — Path gap favours the dollar with the 10-year at 5.240, 94% of its range, and the euro at 2% of its own. I am not selling at the 60-day low with specs already net short 52,334 and 25,341 added on the week; Core PCE Wednesday decides whether the front end confirms.

USD/CAD Long 4d — The cleanest trend on the board, 99% of its 20-day range with a dovish BoC and an escalating trade ban, but I will not buy a new high into Core PCE. I want a pullback toward 1.4150 or a clean break of the 60-day high at 1.42072 after Canada's GDP.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-offmild

VIX 16.07 is up 8.07% on the day and the S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7684, with Asian markets extending the Wall Street selloff as yields and crude rise. AUD/JPY at 109.987 is at 6% of its 20-day range and down 3.98% over twenty days, the clearest risk barometer on the board. This is a yield-and-oil shock rather than a fear shock: gold fell 3.55% on the day to 4167.9, 5% of its 20-day range, so there is no classic haven bid, which is why the dollar and the yen are absorbing the flow and the franc is not.

Helps USD, JPYHurts AUD, CAD
Commodities
copper Flathelps —
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF, AUD
iron ore Downhelps —
hurts AUD
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, CHF, JPY
oil Uphelps CAD
hurts JPY, EUR, CHF

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

USDUp
3 of 3
Rate 3.63% (Fed funds effective, August) · next not in feed; late October FOMC. Nearest scheduled Fed event is Waller speaking 1 October 14:00Z
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Trade politics now cut the dollar's way, with the US imposing a ban on roughly $1 billion of Canadian imports and separate US-China tariff cuts on some goods. Risk-off flow is also landing in the dollar rather than gold.
Read more
CADDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.25% (Canada immediate rate, August) · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Oil should be helping and is not. WTI is up 9.76% over twenty days while USD/CAD sits at 1.41888, 99% of its 20-day range, and the loonie is at its lowest since 9 July: when a commodity currency ignores its commodity, the other story is in control.
Read more
CHFDown
2 of 3
Rate 0.00% (SNB policy rate, confirmed 24 September) · next not in feed; next quarterly assessment in December. Schlegel speaks 1 October 15:30Z and Swiss CPI prints 1 October 06:30Z, forecast 0.0% m/m
Hold · likelyAs priced
Both haven legs are gone. Gold is down 7.99% over twenty days at 5% of its range, so the risk-off tape is not generating franc demand.
Read more
GBPUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.73% (UK immediate rate, August) · next not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks 1 October 08:00Z
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Positioning is the amplifier. Specs are net short 82,568 contracts, 33.7% of open interest, and added 23,853 on the week; any hawkish Bailey line on 1 October forces covering.
Read more
JPYUp
2 of 3
Rate 0.98% (Japan immediate rate, August) · next not in feed; late October BOJ. Tokyo core CPI 1 October 23:30Z is the key input
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Intervention risk is now bilateral and explicit. Finance Minister Katayama called yen undervaluation a problem and reaffirmed US coordination on FX stability after a call with Bessent. Do not fade an official; USD/JPY upside above 158 carries policy risk.
Read more
AUDDown
1 of 3
Rate 4.60% (RBA cash rate, hiked 29 September from 4.35%) · next not in feed; next RBA decision November. CPI prints 30 September 01:30Z
Hike · toss upAs priced
Commodities and risk both cut against it: iron ore supply is expanding, and AUD/JPY at 109.987 sits at 6% of its 20-day range in a risk-off tape.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.50% (ECB deposit rate) · next not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde speaks today 11:00Z and again 1 October 13:30Z
Hike · leaningAs priced
Terms of trade. Europe imports the oil and gas that are both rallying, with US natural gas up 6.47% over twenty days, and that is a real-income drag even as it lifts headline inflation.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−286 pips
4 won, 8 lost, 5 open
Ideas
36%
12 right of 33, 15 pending
Currency calls
31%
21 right of 67, 21 pending
Open trades
5
AUD/JPY short, USD/CHF long, CHF/JPY short, GBP/CHF long, GBP/CAD long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades — #18 GBP/AUD long target — cumulative −286 pipsTrades −286Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/GBP long flat — cumulative −872 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/CAD long right — cumulative −847 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/USD short right — cumulative −803 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/CHF short wrong — cumulative −826 pipsIdeas −826Sep 10Sep 29

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 2 of 922% of 9Conviction 1Conviction 1: 2 of 2100% of 2

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades1625%4 / 8 / 4 other−286.35 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21118%2 / 7 / 2 other−344.3
Conviction 12100%2 / 0+183.0
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions933%3 / 4 / 2 other−7.3
2 of 4 conditions20%0 / 1 / 1 other−119.6
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas3336%12 / 17 / 4 flat−826.215 pending, next Wed, Sep 30
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls6731%21 / 27 / 19 flat21 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 31953%10 / 9
Conviction 23119%6 / 25
Conviction 11233%4 / 8

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
21Sep 29GBP/CADLong1.87781.89121.86954dpendingpending
20Sep 29GBP/CHFLong1.10251.11081.09724dpendingpending
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dpendingpending
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dtarget+103.0
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dpendingpending
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dpendingpending
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#21 entered at 1.8778", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 29CAD/JPYShort4d110.877due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29EUR/CHFLong4d0.94605due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29EUR/USDShort4d1.13598due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 29USD/CADLong4d1.41888due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942due Mon, Oct 5pending
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061due Fri, Oct 2pending
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486due Thu, Oct 1pending
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975wrong−22.9
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328right+43.7
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804due Wed, Sep 30pending
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895right+24.9
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824flat−0.6
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Tue, Sep 29 fullTue, Sep 29 briefMon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Tue, Sep 2906:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC