risk-off (mild). Up: GBP, JPY. Down: CHF, CAD, EUR. 1 trade today: long GBP/CHF.
AUD/CAD Short 4d — The commodity split is clean: iron ore's comeback has fizzled with miners braced for softer prices and copper is -4.79% over five days, while WTI is +23.29% over twenty days. Waiting because CAD is not cashing the oil cheque, -0.30% against the basket over five days, and Bullock speaks Thursday 23:30Z into talk of three more RBA hikes.
CHF/JPY Short 3d — The BOJ is set to raise to a 31-year high on Friday with the policy rate forecast below 1.25% from below 1.00%, against a franc being borrowed as the new funding leg; price at 189.617 is 16% of its twenty-day range and 4.8 big figures below the 194.400 average. I am not trading it because the EUR/JPY short already carries the long-yen leg and specs flipped 103,023 contracts into a net long yen, so the easy money is positioned.
EUR/CHF Long 4d — Same franc-funding story with a duller long leg: 0.94501 is 86% of its twenty-day range and above the 0.93949 average. I would rotate here if the MPC guts the GBP leg tomorrow.
GBP/USD Long 4d — 1.34911 sits at 12% of its twenty-day range with a fully priced Fed hike and the 2Y at 4.65% already carrying part of the next one. I want the dot plot out of the way first; a soft projection set plus a hawkish hold tomorrow is the sequence that lifts this off support.
VIX is 17.20, up 9.41% in five days and 78% of the way up its twenty-day range, while the S&P 500 at 7586 is 7% off the bottom of its range and -2.06% over twenty days. AUD/JPY, the cleanest barometer, sits at 110.668, 19% of range and -2.05% over twenty days. This is a yield- and geopolitics-driven de-risking, not a panic: investors are not giving up on stocks despite spiking yields, oil and fresh AI safety concerns.
Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.
Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.
| What | Scored | Hit rate | Won / lost | Net pips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All trades | 4 | 0% | 0 / 3 / 1 other | −247.4 | 3 open |
| Conviction 3 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| Conviction 2 | 2 | 0% | 0 / 2 | −82.0 | |
| Conviction 1 | 0 | — | — | — | |
| 3 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −40.0 | |
| 0 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −42.0 | |
| Ideas, direction at the horizon | |||||
| All ideas | 0 | — | — | — | 12 pending, next Fri, Sep 18 |
| Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days | |||||
| All currency calls | 22 | 36% | 8 / 8 / 6 flat | 16 pending, next Thu, Sep 17 | |
| Conviction 4 | 5 | 20% | 1 / 4 | ||
| Conviction 3 | 7 | 86% | 6 / 1 | ||
| Conviction 2 | 8 | 0% | 0 / 8 | ||
| Conviction 1 | 2 | 50% | 1 / 1 | ||
| # | Date | Pair | Side | Conviction | Conditions | Entry | Target | Stop | Horizon | Status | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sep 16 | GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1038 | 1.111 | 1.0998 | 4d | stop | −40.0 | ||
| 6 | Sep 15 | AUD/CAD | Short | 0.9905 | 0.9825 | 0.9947 | 4d | stop | −42.0 | ||
| 5 | Sep 15 | EUR/GBP | Short | 0.8556 | 0.8505 | 0.8588 | 4d | pending | pending | ||
| 4 | Sep 14 | EUR/JPY | Short | 178.21 | 175.5 | 179.8 | 5d | pending | pending | ||
| 3 | Sep 14 | USD/CHF | Long | 0.8177 | 0.8265 | 0.8122 | 4d | pending | pending | ||
| 2 | Sep 10 | GBP/JPY | Short | 208.25 | 205.6 | 209.7 | 4d | expired | −107.4 | ||
| 1 | Sep 8 | GBP/AUD | Short | 1.8757 | 1.864 | 1.8815 | 4d | stop | −58.0 |
Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#7 entered at 1.1038", and it appears here at the next refresh.
| Date | Pair | Side | Horizon | Reference | Result | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | AUD/CAD | Short | 4d | 0.99290 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | CHF/JPY | Short | 3d | 189.617 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 16 | EUR/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.94501 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 16 | GBP/USD | Long | 4d | 1.34911 | due Tue, Sep 22 | pending |
| Sep 15 | AUD/JPY | Short | 4d | 110.242 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 15 | CAD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.58822 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 15 | EUR/USD | Short | 3d | 1.15380 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Sep 15 | GBP/AUD | Long | 4d | 1.89304 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | AUD/CAD | Short | 5d | 0.99143 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | CAD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.58943 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Sep 14 | CHF/JPY | Short | 5d | 188.362 | due Mon, Sep 21 | pending |
| Sep 14 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.15727 | due Fri, Sep 18 | pending |
| Date | Started |
|---|---|
| Wed, Sep 16 | 06:01 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 06:00 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 14 | 06:01 UTC |
| Thu, Sep 10 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Sep 9 | 06:00 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 8 | 09:13 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 16:52 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 14:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:20 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 18:10 UTC |
| Sat, Sep 5 | 16:29 UTC |