neutral (mild). Up: CHF, GBP, JPY. Down: AUD, USD. 1 trade today: short USD/JPY.
AUD/CAD Short 4d — The 39.3K job loss and 4.7% unemployment removed the RBA hike tail, while Macklem framed energy prices as an inflation challenge rather than an easing case and WTI is up 4.20% over five days. Waiting for a daily close below the 0.9791 20-day low; the pair has already fallen 0.53% in five sessions and AUD shorts are crowded at 30% of open interest.
EUR/USD Long 4d — Warsh withholding a hike signal takes the pressure off the short side, and specs are net short 99,332 euro contracts after adding 36,076 in a week. I want a close above the 1.1244 cap of the last fortnight before paying up; the stop that respects the 1.1114 low is too wide for a 1.5x target today.
GBP/CHF Short 4d — Bailey calling second-round price pressures quite subdued moves November from hike to hold, yet sterling is second on the basket at +0.37% over five days. He speaks again Saturday at 06:45Z; a repeat of that line plus a break of 1.0960 makes it a trade, but net shorts at 36.7% of open interest make squeezes violent.
The tech rout has stopped: the Nikkei rebounded 1,124 yen by the midday close and the S&P 500 is up 0.33% at 7744, with VIX down 2.43% to 16.46 even though it is still 6.81% above its level five days ago. Havens are not being bid aggressively: gold is up 0.54% on the day but down 5.25% over twenty days at the 31st percentile of its range, and USD/JPY is unchanged at 157.82. AUD/JPY at 109.55, down 0.61%, is the one risk-negative signal, and its driver is the Australian jobs miss rather than global sentiment.
Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.
Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.
| What | Scored | Hit rate | Won / lost | Net pips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All trades | 42 | 12% | 5 / 23 / 14 other | −1090.7 | |
| Conviction 3 | 1 | 0% | 0 / 0 / 1 other | +40.4 | |
| Conviction 2 | 27 | 11% | 3 / 16 / 8 other | −833.8 | |
| Conviction 1 | 12 | 17% | 2 / 6 / 4 other | −131.9 | |
| 4 of 4 conditions | 2 | 0% | 0 / 2 | −85.0 | |
| 3 of 4 conditions | 23 | 17% | 4 / 12 / 7 other | −468.6 | |
| 2 of 4 conditions | 10 | 0% | 0 / 5 / 5 other | −260.5 | |
| 1 of 4 conditions | 4 | 25% | 1 / 2 / 1 other | −69.2 | |
| 0 of 4 conditions | 1 | 0% | 0 / 1 | −42.0 | |
| Ideas, direction at the horizon | |||||
| All ideas | 96 | 44% | 42 / 47 / 7 flat | −768.7 | |
| Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days | |||||
| All currency calls | 146 | 31% | 45 / 53 / 48 flat | 5 pending, next Tue, Sep 29 | |
| Conviction 4 | 5 | 20% | 1 / 4 | ||
| Conviction 3 | 22 | 50% | 11 / 11 | ||
| Conviction 2 | 77 | 22% | 17 / 60 | ||
| Conviction 1 | 42 | 38% | 16 / 26 | ||
| # | Date | Pair | Side | Conviction | Conditions | Entry | Target | Stop | Horizon | Status | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | Oct 16 | USD/JPY | Short | 157.85 | 156.6 | 158.6 | 4d | stop | −75.0 | ||
| 41 | Oct 15 | EUR/AUD | Long | 1.6136 | 1.63 | 1.6028 | 5d | stop | −108.0 | ||
| 40 | Oct 15 | AUD/JPY | Short | 109.73 | 108.45 | 110.58 | 4d | stop | −85.0 | ||
| 39 | Oct 14 | GBP/JPY | Long | 210.1 | 212 | 209.1 | 4d | stop | −100.0 | ||
| 38 | Oct 13 | EUR/JPY | Short | 176.9 | 175.35 | 177.9 | 4d | stop | −100.0 | ||
| 37 | Oct 13 | GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1014 | 1.1115 | 1.0975 | 4d | stop | −39.0 | ||
| 36 | Oct 12 | AUD/CAD | Long | 0.9945 | 1.005 | 0.9878 | 5d | stop | −67.0 | ||
| 35 | Oct 12 | EUR/GBP | Short | 0.8459 | 0.84 | 0.8496 | 4d | expired | +18.7 | ||
| 34 | Oct 9 | AUD/CHF | Long | 0.5799 | 0.586 | 0.5765 | 4d | stop | −34.0 | ||
| 33 | Oct 8 | USD/JPY | Short | 158.17 | 156.3 | 159.05 | 4d | expired | −15.2 | ||
| 32 | Oct 8 | EUR/CHF | Short | 0.9328 | 0.923 | 0.9393 | 4d | expired | +2.4 | ||
| 31 | Oct 7 | GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1041 | 1.112 | 1.0982 | 5d | stop | −59.0 | ||
| 30 | Oct 6 | USD/CAD | Long | 1.4267 | 1.439 | 1.419 | 4d | expired | −4.3 | ||
| 29 | Oct 6 | EUR/AUD | Short | 1.6087 | 1.593 | 1.619 | 4d | expired | +35.2 | ||
| 28 | Oct 5 | CAD/CHF | Short | 0.5812 | 0.574 | 0.5858 | 5d | stop | −46.0 | ||
| 27 | Oct 5 | EUR/JPY | Short | 176.65 | 174.3 | 178.2 | 4d | stop | −155.0 | ||
| 26 | Oct 2 | AUD/CAD | Short | 0.9856 | 0.977 | 0.9912 | 4d | stop | −56.0 | ||
| 25 | Oct 1 | EUR/AUD | Long | 1.6292 | 1.645 | 1.6195 | 4d | stop | −97.0 | ||
| 24 | Oct 1 | EUR/CHF | Long | 0.9468 | 0.9538 | 0.9425 | 4d | stop | −43.0 | ||
| 23 | Sep 30 | USD/CAD | Long | 1.419 | 1.432 | 1.4108 | 4d | expired | +80.8 | ||
| 22 | Sep 30 | AUD/JPY | Short | 109.45 | 107.6 | 110.45 | 4d | expired | −71.0 | ||
| 21 | Sep 29 | GBP/CAD | Long | 1.8778 | 1.8912 | 1.8695 | 4d | expired | +75.8 | ||
| 20 | Sep 29 | GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1025 | 1.1108 | 1.0972 | 4d | stop | −53.0 | ||
| 19 | Sep 28 | CHF/JPY | Short | 189.85 | 186.9 | 191.3 | 5d | expired | −44.1 | ||
| 18 | Sep 25 | GBP/AUD | Long | 1.8832 | 1.8935 | 1.877 | 5d | target | +103.0 | ||
| 17 | Sep 25 | USD/CHF | Long | 0.8289 | 0.839 | 0.8228 | 4d | expired | +74.3 | ||
| 16 | Sep 24 | AUD/JPY | Short | 111.25 | 109.65 | 112.3 | 4d | target | +160.0 | ||
| 15 | Sep 23 | GBP/USD | Short | 1.3313 | 1.3215 | 1.3375 | 4d | target | +98.0 | ||
| 14 | Sep 22 | USD/CHF | Long | 0.8205 | 0.8285 | 0.8155 | 4d | target | +80.0 | ||
| 13 | Sep 22 | EUR/JPY | Long | 180.65 | 183.1 | 179.05 | 4d | stop | −160.0 | ||
| 12 | Sep 21 | USD/CAD | Long | 1.4011 | 1.4125 | 1.394 | 4d | target | +114.0 | ||
| 11 | Sep 18 | GBP/AUD | Short | 1.8755 | 1.8575 | 1.8875 | 5d | reversed | −77.2 | ||
| 10 | Sep 18 | AUD/CAD | Long | 0.9968 | 1.0075 | 0.9898 | 5d | stop | −70.0 | ||
| 9 | Sep 17 | AUD/CHF | Long | 0.5865 | 0.593 | 0.5822 | 5d | stop | −43.0 | ||
| 8 | Sep 17 | EUR/USD | Short | 1.1469 | 1.1375 | 1.1527 | 4d | expired | +40.4 | ||
| 7 | Sep 16 | GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1038 | 1.111 | 1.0998 | 4d | stop | −40.0 | ||
| 6 | Sep 15 | AUD/CAD | Short | 0.9905 | 0.9825 | 0.9947 | 4d | stop | −42.0 | ||
| 5 | Sep 15 | EUR/GBP | Short | 0.8556 | 0.8505 | 0.8588 | 4d | stop | −32.0 | ||
| 4 | Sep 14 | EUR/JPY | Short | 178.21 | 175.5 | 179.8 | 5d | stop | −159.0 | ||
| 3 | Sep 14 | USD/CHF | Long | 0.8177 | 0.8265 | 0.8122 | 4d | expired | +66.9 |
Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#42 entered at 157.85", and it appears here at the next refresh.
| Date | Pair | Side | Horizon | Reference | Result | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | AUD/CAD | Short | 4d | 0.98453 | right | +8.6 |
| Oct 16 | EUR/USD | Long | 4d | 1.12271 | right | +26.5 |
| Oct 16 | GBP/CHF | Short | 4d | 1.09963 | wrong | −9.5 |
| Oct 15 | AUD/CAD | Short | 4d | 0.98741 | right | +12.5 |
| Oct 15 | CAD/JPY | Short | 4d | 111.121 | wrong | −135.0 |
| Oct 15 | EUR/CHF | Short | 5d | 0.93068 | right | +70.5 |
| Oct 15 | GBP/CHF | Short | 4d | 1.09910 | wrong | −50.4 |
| Oct 14 | AUD/JPY | Long | 3d | 110.801 | wrong | −57.9 |
| Oct 14 | CAD/JPY | Long | 3d | 111.472 | right | +60.3 |
| Oct 14 | EUR/AUD | Short | 4d | 1.60113 | wrong | −39.9 |
| Oct 14 | EUR/CAD | Short | 4d | 1.59147 | right | +108.6 |
| Oct 14 | USD/CAD | Short | 3d | 1.42025 | right | +114.5 |
| Oct 13 | EUR/AUD | Short | 4d | 1.60511 | wrong | −33.9 |
| Oct 13 | GBP/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.88656 | wrong | −78.8 |
| Oct 13 | GBP/JPY | Long | 5d | 209.316 | right | +180.3 |
| Oct 13 | USD/CHF | Long | 3d | 0.83274 | wrong | −65.4 |
| Oct 12 | AUD/JPY | Long | 4d | 110.461 | wrong | −89.0 |
| Oct 12 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.12057 | wrong | −21.4 |
| Oct 12 | GBP/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.88750 | wrong | −17.3 |
| Oct 12 | GBP/JPY | Long | 5d | 209.658 | right | +107.4 |
| Oct 9 | AUD/CAD | Long | 3d | 0.99249 | right | +14.0 |
| Oct 9 | EUR/GBP | Short | 4d | 0.84812 | right | +17.4 |
| Oct 9 | GBP/USD | Long | 4d | 1.32435 | flat | −1.2 |
| Oct 8 | AUD/CHF | Short | 4d | 0.57889 | wrong | −35.0 |
| Oct 8 | AUD/JPY | Short | 4d | 109.885 | wrong | −91.0 |
| Oct 8 | EUR/GBP | Short | 3d | 0.84813 | right | +30.4 |
| Oct 8 | EUR/JPY | Short | 4d | 177.062 | wrong | −34.9 |
| Oct 7 | AUD/CHF | Long | 3d | 0.58084 | wrong | −9.9 |
| Oct 7 | EUR/GBP | Short | 4d | 0.84753 | right | +24.4 |
| Oct 7 | EUR/USD | Short | 3d | 1.12334 | right | +23.9 |
| Oct 6 | AUD/CAD | Long | 4d | 0.99446 | flat | +0.7 |
| Oct 6 | AUD/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.57955 | flat | +3.0 |
| Oct 6 | EUR/GBP | Short | 4d | 0.84845 | right | +29.7 |
| Oct 6 | USD/JPY | Long | 3d | 158.071 | right | +13.9 |
| Oct 5 | CAD/JPY | Short | 4d | 110.525 | wrong | −75.6 |
| Oct 5 | EUR/GBP | Short | 4d | 0.84724 | wrong | −8.9 |
| Oct 5 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.11957 | wrong | −39.0 |
| Oct 5 | GBP/AUD | Long | 5d | 1.90313 | wrong | −51.6 |
| Oct 2 | EUR/CHF | Short | 3d | 0.93297 | wrong | −29.0 |
| Oct 2 | EUR/GBP | Short | 4d | 0.85161 | right | +35.7 |
| Oct 2 | GBP/AUD | Long | 4d | 1.90501 | wrong | −65.8 |
| Oct 2 | USD/JPY | Short | 3d | 157.766 | wrong | −58.1 |
| Oct 1 | EUR/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.61276 | wrong | −162.7 |
| Oct 1 | GBP/AUD | Long | 4d | 1.90667 | wrong | −57.9 |
| Oct 1 | USD/JPY | Short | 3d | 158.346 | right | +20.4 |
| Sep 30 | CAD/JPY | Short | 4d | 110.596 | wrong | −18.3 |
| Sep 30 | EUR/USD | Short | 3d | 1.13482 | right | +152.5 |
| Sep 30 | GBP/AUD | Long | 4d | 1.89858 | wrong | −27.8 |
| Sep 29 | CAD/JPY | Short | 4d | 110.877 | right | +36.9 |
| Sep 29 | EUR/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.94605 | wrong | −174.9 |
| Sep 29 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.13598 | right | +165.3 |
| Sep 29 | USD/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.41888 | right | +77.0 |
| Sep 28 | AUD/CAD | Short | 4d | 0.99381 | right | +74.2 |
| Sep 28 | CAD/JPY | Short | 4d | 111.385 | right | +40.8 |
| Sep 28 | EUR/CHF | Long | 5d | 0.94523 | wrong | −166.7 |
| Sep 28 | GBP/CHF | Long | 5d | 1.09942 | wrong | −25.8 |
| Sep 25 | EUR/CHF | Long | 4d | 0.94292 | right | +38.4 |
| Sep 25 | EUR/GBP | Short | 5d | 0.86061 | right | +90.5 |
| Sep 25 | EUR/USD | Short | 4d | 1.13792 | right | +58.0 |
| Sep 25 | USD/CAD | Long | 4d | 1.41486 | right | +99.1 |
| Date | Started |
|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 15 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 06:01 UTC |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 06:01 UTC |
| Mon, Oct 12 | 06:00 UTC |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 06:00 UTC |
| Fri, Oct 2 | 06:00 UTC |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 06:00 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 29 | 06:00 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 28 | 06:01 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 22 | 06:01 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 21 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Sep 16 | 06:01 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 06:00 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 14 | 06:01 UTC |
| Thu, Sep 10 | 06:00 UTC |
| Wed, Sep 9 | 06:00 UTC |
| Tue, Sep 8 | 09:13 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 16:52 UTC |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 14:20 UTC |