ECCO

FX research desk
Tue, Oct 6, 2026
Updated 12:30 UTC

Desk view

risk-on (mild). Up: USD, AUD, GBP. Down: EUR, CAD, JPY. 2 trades today: long USD/CAD, short EUR/AUD.

Trades today

USD/CAD #30
Longconviction 1
Entry1.42670
Target1.43900
Stop1.41900
Canada has the only falling policy rate on the board at 2.25% from 2.27%, CPI at the last print fell to 2.32% from 2.64%, and Friday's employment report is forecast at +6.2K after -41.7K with unemployment rising to 6.5%. Against that the US effective funds rate has risen to 3.75% and the 2-year is at 4.83% from 4.78%, …
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending
EUR/AUD #29
Shortconviction 2
Entry1.60870
Target1.59300
Stop1.61900
This pairs the board's weakest currency against its only more-hawkish path: the euro is last on the five-day basket at -1.04% with French fiscal stress and euro-zone bond stress driving the selling, while Australian CPI was forecast at 4.1% y/y from 3.5% into a bank that has just hiked. The AUD leg has commodity confir…
conditions1.5× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/CAD Long 4d — Hawkish-leaning RBA path with copper support against the only falling policy rate on the board. I am not stacking a third CAD-short alongside #28 and the USD/CAD trade; a Friday employment miss is the trigger I would act on.

AUD/CHF Long 4d — The cleanest pure expression of the copper and iron-ore bid against a currency with a -0.045% rate and 0.0% forecast CPI, so no path to reprice. I am waiting for a daily close above the 0.58235 SMA20; at 0.57955 it is mid-range and I already hold franc exposure through #28.

EUR/GBP Short 4d — Sterling is the relative winner of the French bond stress and the pair has fallen to 0.84845, 16% of its range, with specs net short 91,075 GBP contracts as squeeze fuel. Seven straight down days and Bailey's high-impact appearance Thursday keep me out; I would sell a bounce toward 0.8520.

USD/JPY Long 3d — BoJ hike expectations are retreating ahead of Ueda while Takaichi vows fiscal expansion and the US 10-year sits at 5.311%. At 158.07, 85% of the twenty-day range, I will not add new risk inside the zone where the Ministry of Finance has acted before; direction long, no trade.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-onmild

The S&P 500 is at 7774, 93% of its twenty-day range and +1.17% on five days, with VIX at 15.52, only 29% of its range, and Asian shares tracking Wall Street higher. But the risk-on is equity-only: AUD/JPY at 110.158 is just 37% of its twenty-day range and gold at 4148.2 is at 5% of its range, down 6.55% in twenty days, so there is no commodity-currency confirmation. The live stress is in bonds, not equities, and that routes flow to the dollar rather than to the classic risk trade.

Helps USD, AUDHurts JPY, CHF
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD, CAD
hurts —
gold Downhelps USD
hurts AUD, CHF
iron ore Uphelps AUD
hurts —
natural gas Uphelps USD, CAD
hurts EUR, JPY, CHF
oil Flathelps —
hurts CAD

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

EURDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.50% (ECB deposit rate, unchanged) · next Not in feed; late October ECB. Lagarde spoke 29 September and 1 October
Hold · likelyAs priced
French fiscal and political stress is the whole trade: a France fiscal shock that lifted the dollar, euro-zone bond stress with France and Spain in focus, and a national day of school protests after injuries and mass arrests.
Read more
USDUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.75% (effective fed funds, September, up from 3.63%) · next Not in feed; late October FOMC. FOMC Meeting Minutes 2026-10-07 18:00Z are the nearest scheduled Fed event, with Waller 2026-10-08 08:30Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
Long-end supply and fiscal anxiety: the 10-year at 5.311% is at a 2002 high and commentary is openly debating a debt spiral, while Trump threatens 300% tariffs on non-investing foreign enterprises.
Read more
AUDUp
1 of 3
Rate Not available today — the FRED Australian rate series errored (502); the news confirms the RBA raised at its last meeting [Source: Central bank and macro data (FRED); News] · next Not in feed; November RBA
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
China-linked commodities have turned supportive: copper +1.53% over five days at 66% of its range, and iron ore rebounding on bargain hunting and higher shipping costs.
Read more
CADDown
1 of 3
Rate 2.25% (Canada immediate rate, August, down from 2.27%) · next Not in feed; BoC decision expected in October. Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 2026-10-09 12:30Z are the decisive data [Source: Economic calendar]
Hold · likelyMore dovish than priced
Oil is pinned at 9% of its twenty-day range and the loonie is described as vulnerable near April 2025 lows on weak oil and a bullish dollar; the Parti Québécois minority win adds a unity referendum to the risk list.
Read more
GBPUp
1 of 3
Rate 3.73% (UK immediate rate, August) · next Not in feed; November MPC. Bailey speaks 2026-10-08 12:15Z, high impact
Hold · leaningAs priced
Positioning is the story: specs are net short 91,075 contracts, 36.2% of open interest, after adding 8,507 shorts in the week. Sterling is also the relative winner of the French bond stress, gaining alongside the franc.
Read more
JPYDown
1 of 3
Rate 0.98% (Japan immediate rate, August, edging lower) · next Not in feed; late October BOJ. Ueda speaks 2026-10-06 06:35Z, high impact
Hold · leaningAs priced
Takaichi's vow of fiscal expansion and a US 10-year at 5.311% keep the differential against the yen; Morgan Stanley stays bearish yen.
Read more
CHFFlat
1 of 3
Rate -0.045% (3M interbank, August) · next Not in feed; December quarterly assessment. Schlegel spoke 1 October 15:30Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
The French sovereign story is the only live driver — it drove a rush to the franc that took CHF to the top of the five-day basket, and the franc gave it back the moment the dollar took over as the haven.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−415 pips
5 won, 13 lost, 3 open
Ideas
48%
25 right of 52, 14 pending
Currency calls
36%
34 right of 94, 20 pending
Open trades
3
CAD/CHF short, EUR/AUD short, USD/CAD long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-1148-826-504-182139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades — #8 EUR/USD short expired — cumulative −374 pipsTrades — #10 AUD/CAD long stop — cumulative −444 pipsTrades — #12 USD/CAD long target — cumulative −330 pipsTrades — #14 USD/CHF long target — cumulative −250 pipsTrades — #15 GBP/USD short target — cumulative −152 pipsTrades — #11 GBP/AUD short reversed — cumulative −229 pipsTrades — #13 EUR/JPY long stop — cumulative −389 pipsTrades — #18 GBP/AUD long target — cumulative −286 pipsTrades — #16 AUD/JPY short target — cumulative −126 pipsTrades — #17 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −52 pipsTrades — #24 EUR/CHF long stop — cumulative −95 pipsTrades — #20 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −148 pipsTrades — #25 EUR/AUD long stop — cumulative −245 pipsTrades — #26 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −301 pipsTrades — #19 CHF/JPY short expired — cumulative −345 pipsTrades — #21 GBP/CAD long expired — cumulative −269 pipsTrades — #22 AUD/JPY short expired — cumulative −340 pipsTrades — #23 USD/CAD long expired — cumulative −260 pipsTrades — #27 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades −415Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −1148 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −1052 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −1131 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/JPY long right — cumulative −1017 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1093 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −980 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −857 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-18 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −912 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1012 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 USD/CHF long right — cumulative −953 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-21 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −801 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/GBP long right — cumulative −766 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 AUD/JPY long wrong — cumulative −908 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 EUR/AUD short wrong — cumulative −1011 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-22 GBP/USD short right — cumulative −870 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 AUD/CHF long flat — cumulative −871 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/GBP long flat — cumulative −872 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-23 EUR/CAD long right — cumulative −847 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/USD short right — cumulative −803 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 AUD/CHF short wrong — cumulative −826 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/AUD long right — cumulative −723 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −696 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-24 EUR/CHF short wrong — cumulative −771 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −713 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/CHF long right — cumulative −675 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −576 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-25 EUR/GBP short right — cumulative −485 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 AUD/CAD short right — cumulative −411 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −370 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −218 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 GBP/CHF long wrong — cumulative −244 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-28 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −410 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 USD/CAD long right — cumulative −333 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −508 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 EUR/USD short right — cumulative −343 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-29 CAD/JPY short right — cumulative −306 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −334 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-30 CAD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −352 pipsIdeas — 2026-10-01 USD/JPY short right — cumulative −332 pipsIdeas −332Sep 10Oct 6

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 3 of 1421% of 14Conviction 1Conviction 1: 2 of 367% of 3

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades2719%5 / 13 / 9 other−414.53 open
Conviction 310%0 / 0 / 1 other+40.4
Conviction 21916%3 / 11 / 5 other−532.1
Conviction 1540%2 / 1 / 2 other+242.6
4 of 4 conditions20%0 / 2−85.0
3 of 4 conditions1724%4 / 7 / 6 other−107.3
2 of 4 conditions40%0 / 2 / 2 other−94.8
1 of 4 conditions1100%1 / 0+80.0
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas5248%25 / 23 / 4 flat−331.914 pending, next Wed, Oct 7
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls9436%34 / 32 / 28 flat20 pending, next Tue, Sep 29
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 32152%11 / 10
Conviction 25024%12 / 38
Conviction 11856%10 / 8

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
30Oct 6USD/CADLong1.42671.4391.4194dpendingpending
29Oct 6EUR/AUDShort1.60871.5931.6194dpendingpending
28Oct 5CAD/CHFShort0.58120.5740.58585dpendingpending
27Oct 5EUR/JPYShort176.65174.3178.24dstop−155.0
26Oct 2AUD/CADShort0.98560.9770.99124dstop−56.0
25Oct 1EUR/AUDLong1.62921.6451.61954dstop−97.0
24Oct 1EUR/CHFLong0.94680.95380.94254dstop−43.0
23Sep 30USD/CADLong1.4191.4321.41084dexpired+80.8
22Sep 30AUD/JPYShort109.45107.6110.454dexpired−71.0
21Sep 29GBP/CADLong1.87781.89121.86954dexpired+75.8
20Sep 29GBP/CHFLong1.10251.11081.09724dstop−53.0
19Sep 28CHF/JPYShort189.85186.9191.35dexpired−44.1
18Sep 25GBP/AUDLong1.88321.89351.8775dtarget+103.0
17Sep 25USD/CHFLong0.82890.8390.82284dexpired+74.3
16Sep 24AUD/JPYShort111.25109.65112.34dtarget+160.0
15Sep 23GBP/USDShort1.33131.32151.33754dtarget+98.0
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dtarget+80.0
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dstop−160.0
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dtarget+114.0
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dreversed−77.2
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dstop−70.0
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dexpired+40.4
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#30 entered at 1.4267", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Oct 6AUD/CADLong4d0.99446due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6AUD/CHFLong4d0.57955due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6EUR/GBPShort4d0.84845due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 6USD/JPYLong3d158.071due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5CAD/JPYShort4d110.525due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/GBPShort4d0.84724due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5EUR/USDShort4d1.11957due Fri, Oct 9pending
Oct 5GBP/AUDLong5d1.90313due Mon, Oct 12pending
Oct 2EUR/CHFShort3d0.93297due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 2EUR/GBPShort4d0.85161due Thu, Oct 8pending
Oct 2GBP/AUDLong4d1.90501due Thu, Oct 8pending
Oct 2USD/JPYShort3d157.766due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1EUR/CADLong4d1.61276due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1GBP/AUDLong4d1.90667due Wed, Oct 7pending
Oct 1USD/JPYShort3d158.346right+20.4
Sep 30CAD/JPYShort4d110.596wrong−18.3
Sep 30EUR/USDShort3d1.13482right+152.5
Sep 30GBP/AUDLong4d1.89858wrong−27.8
Sep 29CAD/JPYShort4d110.877right+36.9
Sep 29EUR/CHFLong4d0.94605wrong−174.9
Sep 29EUR/USDShort4d1.13598right+165.3
Sep 29USD/CADLong4d1.41888right+77.0
Sep 28AUD/CADShort4d0.99381right+74.2
Sep 28CAD/JPYShort4d111.385right+40.8
Sep 28EUR/CHFLong5d0.94523wrong−166.7
Sep 28GBP/CHFLong5d1.09942wrong−25.8
Sep 25EUR/CHFLong4d0.94292right+38.4
Sep 25EUR/GBPShort5d0.86061right+90.5
Sep 25EUR/USDShort4d1.13792right+58.0
Sep 25USD/CADLong4d1.41486right+99.1
Sep 24AUD/CHFShort3d0.57975wrong−22.9
Sep 24AUD/USDShort3d0.70328right+43.7
Sep 24EUR/AUDLong4d1.61808right+103.4
Sep 24EUR/CHFShort4d0.93820wrong−75.8
Sep 24EUR/USDShort4d1.13804right+27.1
Sep 23AUD/CHFLong3d0.58330flat−1.2
Sep 23EUR/CADLong4d1.60895right+24.9
Sep 23EUR/GBPLong4d0.85824flat−0.6
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157wrong−142.8
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043wrong−102.5
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736right+35.7
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808right+140.8
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069wrong−100.7
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765right+151.8
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338right+59.3
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078right+113.9
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986wrong−54.2
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096wrong−75.7
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651right+122.3
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911right+112.9
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738wrong−310.7
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614wrong−79.1
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870right+95.7
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3

Reports

Daily reports

Tue, Oct 6 fullTue, Oct 6 briefMon, Oct 5 fullMon, Oct 5 briefFri, Oct 2 fullFri, Oct 2 briefThu, Oct 1 fullThu, Oct 1 briefWed, Sep 30 fullWed, Sep 30 briefTue, Sep 29 fullTue, Sep 29 briefMon, Sep 28 fullMon, Sep 28 briefFri, Sep 25 fullFri, Sep 25 briefThu, Sep 24 fullThu, Sep 24 briefWed, Sep 23 fullWed, Sep 23 briefTue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 brief

Runs

DateStarted
Mon, Oct 506:00 UTC
Fri, Oct 206:00 UTC
Thu, Oct 106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 3006:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 2906:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 2806:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC