The obvious trade is weakest-vs-strongest, CHF/JPY short, but that chart is already sitting at 4% of its 20-day range on the 60-day low with three days of stalling. GBP/JPY gives me the same yen leg at a better level (11% of range, mid of a 207.10-208.91 consolidation) and a cleaner short leg: sterling's weakness is a frozen BoE, not a commodity print that can reverse overnight like AUD's iron ore leg. There is also no scheduled UK event left inside the horizon, so the event risk sits only on the leg I want to be long.
4 of 45 days
Minor conflict
CHF/JPY cross
ShortMedium
Weakest currency against strongest: the franc is -0.64% on the basket over 5d with a negative policy rate and the yen is +1.33% with a hike due next week. I am carrying it as a view, not a trade, purely on level: the cross closed at 189.53 with the 60-day low at 189.084 and three sessions of 189.4-190.1 chop, and FXStreet flags it "pressing against 0.786 support arc". Same story as GBP/JPY, worse entry, so the risk goes in GBP/JPY instead.
3 of 44 days
Minor conflict
Dollar pairs
GBP/USD
ShortMedium
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
3 of 44 days
Major conflict
USD/JPY
ShortMedium
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
3 of 43 days
Major conflict
USD/CHF
No biasLow
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
2 of 43 days
Major conflict
AUD/USD
No biasLow
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
1 of 44 days
Major conflict
EUR/USD
No biasLow
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
0 of 43 days
Major conflict
USD/CAD
No biasLow
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs
0 of 44 days
Major conflict
Squares are the four checks in order narrative, catalyst, structure, rates: filled is aligned, crossed is against, empty is neutral; the ringed square is the dominant driver. A pair reaches High only with all four aligned and no major conflict.
Direction reads
55%
6 right of 11, 21 pending
High-tier trades
−58 pips
0 won, 1 lost, 1 open
Best cross idea
Short GBP/JPY
High tier, 1 more idea
Open calls
1
GBP/JPY short
Track record
Cumulative pips by strategy
High-tier tradesDirection reads
Hit rate by tier
Scorecard
Reads are scored on direction at the horizon; trades on target, stop or expiry; currency calls against the basket at three trading days.
Strategy
Scored
Hit rate
Right / wrong
Net pips
High-tier trades
1
0%
0 / 1
−58.0
1 open
High reads
0
—
—
—
4 pending, next Mon, Sep 14
Medium reads
10
60%
6 / 3 / 1
+339.0
17 pending, next Mon, Sep 14
Low reads
1
0%
0 / 1
−53.7
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls
5
40%
2 / 1 / 2 flat
17 pending, next Mon, Sep 14
Conviction 4 of 4
1
0%
0 / 1
Conviction 3 of 4
2
100%
2 / 0
Conviction 2 of 4
2
0%
0 / 2
Regimes
Pair
Regime
Dominant driver
Held
EUR/USD
Range regime, rate-differential stalemate
ECB hike into an energy shock vs a Fed being repriced hawkish
since Sat, Sep 5
GBP/USD
Rate-differential regime with an energy cost overlay
Stalled BoE path against a repricing US front end
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/JPY
BoJ normalisation and short-squeeze regime
BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short
since Sat, Sep 5
AUD/USD
Commodity terms-of-trade and carry regime
RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/CHF
Range regime anchored by SNB negative rates
SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end
since Sat, Sep 5
USD/CAD
Oil terms-of-trade regime
Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs
since Sat, Sep 5
Book
High-tier calls
#
Date
Pair
Side
Entry
Target
Stop
Horizon
Status
Pips
2
Sep 10
GBP/JPY
Short
208.25
205.6
209.7
4d
pending
pending
1
Sep 8
GBP/AUD
Short
1.8757
1.864
1.8815
4d
stop
−58.0
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