ECCO

FX research desk
Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Updated 22:30 UTC

Desk view

risk-on (clear). Up: AUD, USD. Down: CAD, JPY, GBP. 2 trades today: long USD/CHF, long EUR/JPY.

Trades today

USD/CHF #14
Longconviction 1
Entry0.82050
Target0.82850
Stop0.81550
Widest level-and-path gap available without touching the yen: the Fed took the target to 4.00% from 3.75% on 16 September with fresh projections, an official has since called the inflation fight 'painful', and the 10Y is 4.96% near the top of its 20-day range; the SNB is forecast to hold at 0.00% on Thursday with the 3…
conditions1.6× risk4 days · pending
EUR/JPY #13
Longconviction 2
Entry180.650
Target183.100
Stop179.050
The cleanest widening path gap on the board that avoids the dollar: the FT reports the BOJ will hold a quarterly cadence of hikes after the 18 September move, putting the next step near year-end, and Ueda's guarded tone is being read as marking the limits of the shift, while Lane says a second energy wave makes inflati…
conditions1.5× risk4 days · pending

Ideas, not traded yet

AUD/JPY Long 4d — The purest risk-plus-rates expression: Bullock says inflation risks may be materialising with second-round risk, copper is at the 97th percentile of its 20-day range, and the BOJ is on a quarterly cadence. Not trading it because the book already carries two Australian dollar longs; Thursday's employment print is the gate.

EUR/AUD Short 4d — Rate path favours the Australian dollar into a likely hike, but at 1.61043 the pair sits at the 12th percentile of its 20-day range and just above the 60-day low of 1.60770. I want a bounce toward 1.6150 or a clean break after Thursday's jobs data.

EUR/GBP Long 3d — Lane's stickier-inflation framing against an MPC that held 3-0-6 and offered no hawkish guidance argues for the euro. Waiting on tomorrow's flash PMIs: UK services forecast to slip to 52.0 while German services improve to 49.9.

GBP/USD Short 4d — Sterling is sliding on the hawkish Fed and rising shorts, below the 100-day average and at the 14th percentile of its 20-day range. Specs already net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest, so I want Bailey on Friday before adding risk to a crowded trade.

Risk and commodities

Risk sentimentRisk-onclear

VIX is 14.87, down 13.04% over five days and at the 21st percentile of its 20-day range, while the S&P 500 closed +1.49% at 7765, the 95th percentile of its range and within 0.4% of a record as oil eased. The risk barometer AUD/JPY is up 1.79% over five days to 112.157 and gold is down 7.05% over 20 days to 4366.8, the 19th percentile. Note the wrinkle: the dollar declined on increased risk appetite yesterday while the franc gained, so this regime is not cleanly rewarding the classic havens.

Helps AUD, CADHurts JPY, CHF
Commodities
copper Uphelps AUD
hurts JPY, EUR
gold Downhelps USD
hurts CHF
iron ore Flathelps AUD
hurts —
natural gas Flathelps —
hurts EUR
oil Downhelps CAD
hurts JPY, EUR, CHF

Currencies on the rate path, against the basket

AUDUp
2 of 3
Rate 4.35% · next not in feed; news points to an imminent decision, one desk saying the RBA is poised to hike next week
Hike · likelyAs priced
Copper is +7.13% over five days at the 97th percentile of its range and the risk regime is firmly on, with AUD/JPY +1.79% over five days.
Read more
CADDown
2 of 3
Rate 2.25% · next not in feed; next BoC decision in October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Oil cuts both ways: WTI is -11.69% over five days, but crude rebounded on hopes of US-Iran talks and the loonie strengthened with it this morning. Trade friction persists with Trump seeking a Belarus fertiliser deal amid the Canada trade war.
Read more
JPYDown
2 of 3
Rate 0.977% immediate rate; BOJ policy rate raised to below 1.25% from below 1.00% on 18 September · next not in feed; next BOJ decision late October
Hold · leaningAs priced
Intervention risk is live at 157.48 with the market explicitly on intervention watch, and the carry trade is being flagged as facing a major test. Specs are net long yen 120,359 contracts, 22.2% of open interest, after adding 109,563 in a week — an offside crowd that can extend the sell-off if it capitulates.
Read more
USDUp
2 of 3
Rate 3.63% effective (August); target raised to 4.00% from 3.75% on 16 September · next not in feed; late October FOMC
Hike · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Trade politics is two-sided: low expectations are set for the Trump-Xi meeting with the truce due to be extended, while tariff damage stories run domestically.
Read more
GBPDown
1 of 3
Rate 3.7313% immediate rate; Bank Rate 3.75% · next not in feed; next MPC decision in November, Bailey speaks 25 September 09:15Z
Hold · leaningAs priced
Positioning is the story: large specs are net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest, essentially unchanged on the week. Crowded shorts limit how far this can run without a new catalyst.
Read more
CHFFlat
1 of 3
Rate -0.045% 3M interbank; SNB policy rate 0.00% · next 2026-09-24 07:30Z SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, press conference 08:00Z
Hold · likelyAs priced
The franc is described as a magnet for the carry trade, funding higher-yield positions, which caps it in a risk-on regime; it nonetheless rebounded and gained as the dollar declined on risk appetite.
Read more
EURFlat
1 of 3
Rate 2.50% deposit rate · next not in feed; ECB decided 10 September, next decision late October
Hold · leaningMore hawkish than priced
Higher energy costs are a terms-of-trade drag and euro area consumer confidence is in focus for that reason.
Read more

Each card: the policy rate now, the next decision and how sure the desk is, the 3-6 month path versus what the market prices, and the main non-rate factor. Dots are Nahan's own conviction, 1 to 3.

Trades
−415 pips
0 won, 6 lost, 6 open
Ideas
15%
2 right of 13, 15 pending
Currency calls
30%
13 right of 43, 18 pending
Open trades
6
EUR/USD short, AUD/CAD long, GBP/AUD short, USD/CAD long, EUR/JPY long, USD/CHF long

Track record

Cumulative pips

TradesIdeas
-837-593-349-105139Trades — #1 GBP/AUD short stop — cumulative −58 pipsTrades — #6 AUD/CAD short stop — cumulative −100 pipsTrades — #2 GBP/JPY short expired — cumulative −207 pipsTrades — #7 GBP/CHF long stop — cumulative −247 pipsTrades — #5 EUR/GBP short stop — cumulative −279 pipsTrades — #4 EUR/JPY short stop — cumulative −438 pipsTrades — #3 USD/CHF long expired — cumulative −372 pipsTrades — #9 AUD/CHF long stop — cumulative −415 pipsTrades −415Ideas — 2026-09-15 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +56 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +53 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 EUR/USD short right — cumulative +139 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 CAD/CHF long flat — cumulative +135 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 GBP/AUD long wrong — cumulative −18 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-15 AUD/JPY short wrong — cumulative −180 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −257 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-14 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −498 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 CHF/JPY short wrong — cumulative −613 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 EUR/CHF long wrong — cumulative −652 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 AUD/CAD short wrong — cumulative −712 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-16 GBP/USD long wrong — cumulative −822 pipsIdeas — 2026-09-17 AUD/USD short wrong — cumulative −837 pipsIdeas −837Sep 10Sep 22

Hit rate by conviction

50%Conviction 2Conviction 2: 0 of 50% of 5

Scorecard

Trades on target, stop or expiry, broken out by Nahan's conviction and by how many of the four conditions held; ideas and currency calls on direction at the horizon.

WhatScoredHit rateWon / lostNet pips
All trades80%0 / 6 / 2 other−414.56 open
Conviction 30———
Conviction 260%0 / 5 / 1 other−249.1
Conviction 10———
4 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−32.0
3 of 4 conditions40%0 / 3 / 1 other−175.1
0 of 4 conditions10%0 / 1−42.0
Ideas, direction at the horizon
All ideas1315%2 / 9 / 2 flat−836.815 pending, next Wed, Sep 23
Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days
All currency calls4330%13 / 18 / 12 flat18 pending, next Wed, Sep 23
Conviction 4520%1 / 4
Conviction 31362%8 / 5
Conviction 21916%3 / 16
Conviction 1617%1 / 5

Book

Trades

#DatePairSideConvictionConditionsEntryTargetStopHorizonStatusPips
14Sep 22USD/CHFLong0.82050.82850.81554dpendingpending
13Sep 22EUR/JPYLong180.65183.1179.054dpendingpending
12Sep 21USD/CADLong1.40111.41251.3944dpendingpending
11Sep 18GBP/AUDShort1.87551.85751.88755dpendingpending
10Sep 18AUD/CADLong0.99681.00750.98985dpendingpending
9Sep 17AUD/CHFLong0.58650.5930.58225dstop−43.0
8Sep 17EUR/USDShort1.14691.13751.15274dpendingpending
7Sep 16GBP/CHFLong1.10381.1111.09984dstop−40.0
6Sep 15AUD/CADShort0.99050.98250.99474dstop−42.0
5Sep 15EUR/GBPShort0.85560.85050.85884dstop−32.0
4Sep 14EUR/JPYShort178.21175.5179.85dstop−159.0
3Sep 14USD/CHFLong0.81770.82650.81224dexpired+66.9
2Sep 10GBP/JPYShort208.25205.6209.74dexpired−107.4
1Sep 8GBP/AUDShort1.87571.8641.88154dstop−58.0

Send the bot a screenshot or a note with the trade number in the caption, e.g. "#14 entered at 0.8205", and it appears here at the next refresh.

Ideas and direction reads

DatePairSideHorizonReferenceResultPips
Sep 22AUD/JPYLong4d112.157due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/AUDShort4d1.61043due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 22EUR/GBPLong3d0.85736due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 22GBP/USDShort4d1.33808due Mon, Sep 28pending
Sep 21EUR/AUDShort4d1.61069due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21GBP/USDShort4d1.33765due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/CHFLong4d0.82338due Fri, Sep 25pending
Sep 21USD/JPYLong3d157.078due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18AUD/JPYLong4d111.986due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18EUR/AUDShort4d1.61096due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18GBP/USDShort4d1.33651due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 18USD/CADLong4d1.39911due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 17AUD/USDShort3d0.71109wrong−14.7
Sep 17CHF/JPYShort4d188.738due Wed, Sep 23pending
Sep 17EUR/CHFLong5d0.94614due Thu, Sep 24pending
Sep 17USD/CADLong4d1.39870due Wed, Sep 23pending
Sep 16AUD/CADShort4d0.99290wrong−59.4
Sep 16CHF/JPYShort3d189.617wrong−115.5
Sep 16EUR/CHFLong4d0.94501wrong−39.1
Sep 16GBP/USDLong4d1.34911wrong−110.3
Sep 15AUD/JPYShort4d110.242wrong−162.2
Sep 15CAD/CHFLong4d0.58822flat−4.3
Sep 15EUR/USDShort3d1.15380right+55.6
Sep 15GBP/AUDLong4d1.89304wrong−152.8
Sep 14AUD/CADShort5d0.99143wrong−76.8
Sep 14CAD/CHFLong4d0.58943flat−2.7
Sep 14CHF/JPYShort5d188.362wrong−241.0
Sep 14EUR/USDShort4d1.15727right+86.4

Reports

Daily reports

Tue, Sep 22 fullTue, Sep 22 briefMon, Sep 21 fullMon, Sep 21 briefFri, Sep 18 fullFri, Sep 18 briefThu, Sep 17 fullThu, Sep 17 briefWed, Sep 16 fullWed, Sep 16 briefTue, Sep 15 fullTue, Sep 15 briefMon, Sep 14 fullMon, Sep 14 briefFri, Sep 11 fullFri, Sep 11 briefThu, Sep 10 fullThu, Sep 10 briefWed, Sep 9 fullWed, Sep 9 briefTue, Sep 8 fullTue, Sep 8 briefMon, Sep 7 fullMon, Sep 7 briefSat, Sep 5 full

Runs

DateStarted
Tue, Sep 2206:01 UTC
Mon, Sep 2106:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 1606:01 UTC
Tue, Sep 1506:00 UTC
Mon, Sep 1406:01 UTC
Thu, Sep 1006:00 UTC
Wed, Sep 906:00 UTC
Tue, Sep 809:13 UTC
Mon, Sep 716:52 UTC
Mon, Sep 714:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:20 UTC
Sat, Sep 518:10 UTC
Sat, Sep 516:29 UTC